Canaccord Genuity analysts have raised Tesla's price target and adjusted delivery expectations for the upcoming quarter and fiscal year 2024.
The investment bank maintained a buy rating on Tesla stock and raised the price target from $222 to $267, indicating a potential 50% increase from the last closing price.
Canaccord stated in a report: "In recent weeks, we have significantly improved our global Tesla delivery tracking system." Through a comprehensive search of national-level delivery data, we obtained some important insights into the delivery volume for the second quarter of 2024. Our database covers approximately 40 countries."
Canaccord analysts lowered the delivery expectations for the second quarter of 2024 from about 461,100 units to 429,000 units, below FactSet's consensus of 445,000 units. Analysts indicated that this downward revision reflects the bank's recent data mining results.
"It should be noted that we estimate trends for June by country. June is usually the highest sales month within the quarter; we took this seasonal factor into account in our estimates," they wrote.
For the entire year of 2024, Canaccord adjusted the delivery expectations to about 1.86 million units, reflecting a 3% year-over-year growth. This revision is lower than their previous estimate of 1.93 million units but still above FactSet's consensus of 1.84 million units.
Analysts stated that they expect Tesla's deliveries in 2024 to grow year-over-year, given CEO Elon Musk's optimistic remarks in the first-quarter earnings call of 2024 "and the potential launch of new models at the end of 2024."
Geographically, Canaccord noted different trends in Tesla's major markets. In China, May 2024 deliveries increased by about 31% year-over-year to approximately 55,800 units, compensating for the weak performance of around 31,400 units in April. Analysts expect this trend "to continue into June," estimating the second-quarter 2024 deliveries in China at 157,800 units, reflecting a 19.1% quarter-over-quarter increase.
