Copper prices rose to a more than one-month high on Tuesday, driven by concerns over rising energy and raw material costs and a weakening dollar. The market's expectation that tensions in the Middle East may ease also supported the overall sentiment for industrial metals. According to Reuters, the main copper futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 2.05% at 101,190 yuan per ton, peaking at 101,450 yuan, the highest since March 11. As of 0718 GMT, three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.97% to $13,180 per ton, reaching an intraday high of $13,208, the highest since March 3.
Cost Concerns Support Copper Prices
Analysts believe that one of the core drivers of the current strength in copper prices is the market's concern that the war in the Middle East will push up energy prices, thus raising the cost of metal production across the mining, smelting, and transportation chain. A previous Reuters report stated that Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, said the war has increased its cash cost by at least 10 cents per pound. The company's chairman, Pacheco, described this increase as "quite significant." Meanwhile, Antofagasta Mining also expressed concerns about the continued rise in fuel and input costs.
Improved Signals from China Demand
Besides cost factors, improved demand for spot imports in China also supported copper prices. Relevant Reuters reports indicated that Yangshan copper premium, an important indicator of China's import willingness, rose to $74 a ton on April 13, significantly up from the previous week and reaching the highest level since June 2025. Although another Reuters analysis on April 9 pointed out that China's net imports of refined copper plummeted at the beginning of the year, showing that high copper prices had suppressed some buying demand, the recent rebound in Yangshan premium suggests a return in some spot purchasing interest.
Nickel Prices Strengthen Simultaneously
In the non-ferrous metal sector, nickel also showed strong performance. According to Reuters, Shanghai nickel rose 3.91%, reaching its highest level since March 13; LME nickel rose to $17,840 per ton, the highest since March 2. In other metals, futures for aluminum, lead, tin, and zinc all rose across the Shanghai market, with corresponding increases in the London market, indicating a rise in risk preference for the basic metals sector amid a weaker dollar and cost concerns.
Outlook Hinges on Costs and Dollar
Looking at a broader context, copper prices briefly surged to record highs in January this year driven by speculative buying, a weakening dollar, and geopolitical risks. At that time, LME three-month copper once reached $14,527.50. Compared with the rapid rise at the beginning of the year, the current market trading logic leans more towards a combination of "cost-driven + dollar fall + easing tensions expectations." Whether copper prices can continue to rise in the future still depends on whether the situation in the Middle East continues to cool down, whether energy prices fall from high levels, and whether the improvement in China's spot demand can be sustained.
