On November 5, election day in the United States, Trump's odds of victory surged to 68% on betting platforms, driving up prices of various market assets. U.S. stocks closed sharply higher overnight, with major stock index futures continuing to rise, led by small-cap stocks and particularly strong performance from tech stocks. The Dow rose 427.28 points, or 1.02%, to 42,221.88 points; the S&P 500 increased by 1.23% to 5,782.76 points; and the Nasdaq gained 1.43%, closing at 18,439.17 points. Among tech giants, NVIDIA surpassed Apple to become the world's most valuable company by market capitalization.
As voting gradually ended across the United States, market sentiment was supported by optimistic economic expectations, with tech and small-cap stocks showing a marked risk preference. Analysts believe that improved corporate performance, lower interest rates, and a strong labor market supported the stock market's rise. Additionally, the S&P 500 has not fallen on election day since 2000, which led traders to anticipate a rise on election day.
The cross-asset market also showed a broad upward trend. Gold held steady above $2,740, and oil prices surged amid tensions in the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's dismissal of Defense Minister Gallant heightened concerns about geopolitical risks, further boosting oil prices.
Despite the "Trump trade" on election day— including Bitcoin, U.S. Treasury yields, and Trump media (DJT) — experiencing a temporary downturn, there was a sudden rebound in the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. DJT's stock price rebounded 10% in after-hours trading, and the dollar, Bitcoin, and 10-year bond yields also surged significantly in early trading.
As of 9 a.m. Beijing time on November 6, polling stations in 16 U.S. states and Washington, D.C. had closed. According to AP predictions, Republican candidate Trump won multiple states such as Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida, garnering 95 electoral votes in total. Democratic candidate Harris received 35 electoral votes. The market continues to focus on the election developments, attempting to price the uncertainty of the results. Due to the potential closeness and contentiousness of the vote count, post-election markets may remain volatile, with investors closely monitoring the control of Congress, which is also crucial to market impacts.
