According to the latest data released by China's customs on Monday, China's export growth in September sharply slowed to only a 2.4% year-on-year increase, marking the lowest level in five months. This figure is significantly below economists' expectations of 6.0% and the 8.7% increase seen in August. This downturn in exports indicates a cooling global demand for Chinese products and a notable slowdown in manufacturing orders.
On the import side, China's imports in September increased by just 0.3%, below the expected 0.9% and the 0.5% growth in August. China's trade surplus also decreased from $91.02 billion in August to $81.71 billion, falling short of the market's expectation of $89.8 billion.
Previously, in August, China's export growth reached its fastest pace in nearly a year and a half, demonstrating strong export performance. However, analysts have warned that China should not overly rely on global demand to drive economic growth, especially amid the current global economic slowdown.
To address economic challenges, the Chinese government plans to support local governments and aid low-income groups through increased debt issuance. However, as the scale of fiscal stimulus has not yet been disclosed, market reactions remain relatively cautious. Meanwhile, restoring consumer and business confidence in China's economy will be a long-term process, particularly as the outlook for the real estate market remains bleak.
In September, China's manufacturing activity contracted for the fifth consecutive month, with new export orders falling to the lowest point in seven months. Analysts point out that the strong export performance in previous months was partly due to manufacturers reducing prices to attract international buyers.
At the same time, the international trade situation is deteriorating. The European Commission recently passed a motion to impose additional tariffs of up to 45% on Chinese-made electric vehicles, echoing similar measures by the United States and Canada. The escalation of trade tensions could further impact China's future export performance, adding more uncertainty to its economy.
Despite these challenges, the head of China's National Development and Reform Commission last week expressed confidence in achieving the annual economic growth target of approximately 5%. However, amid the dual pressures of weakening global demand and insufficient domestic demand, China's path to economic recovery remains fraught with difficulties.
