- Spot gold prices saw a significant rebound on Tuesday, closing up $33.81 to $4557.42 per ounce, a rise of 0.75%. This was bolstered by the news that the U.S. announced the end of offensive military actions against Iran, leading to a structural adjustment in market risk aversion sentiment.
- U.S. President Trump unexpectedly paused the plan aimed at ensuring free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio confirmed that the epic operation had achieved its goals, leading to a marginal easing of geopolitical tensions and a 1.5 basis point drop in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to 4.416%.
- Gold bulls showed resilience with buying on dips after hitting a one-month low. However, analysts warn that to maintain a long-term upward trend, gold prices need to further break through the resistance level of $4700 per ounce, as market focus gradually shifts to fundamental economic data.
Geopolitical Shifts and the Repricing of Safe-Haven Assets
In today's precious metals market, spot gold demonstrated high sensitivity to geopolitical headlines. As Washington sent clear signals of de-escalation, the pricing logic of the precious metals market quickly shifted from a state of extreme panic back to fundamentals. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio's statement on the end of the epic operation provided a key policy anchor for the market. Although the direct driving force of risk aversion has weakened, previously oversold positions were covered at low levels, directly pushing gold prices up nearly $34 in a single day. Traders are currently assessing whether the liquidity release brought about by the easing of local military conflicts is sufficient to support a solid bottom structure for gold above $4500 per ounce.
Yield Curve Decline and Its Boost to Non-Interest-Bearing Assets
In addition to the direct catalyst of geopolitics, fluctuations in the fixed income market also provided a macro foundation for gold's rebound. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield dipped 1.5 basis points to 4.416% during the day. Against the backdrop of falling nominal interest rates, the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold correspondingly decreases. Market analysts at City Index noted that although a high interest rate environment typically suppresses the valuation space of precious metals over the long term, the recent decline in energy prices is marginally weakening inflation expectations. This provides policy space for global central banks to maintain or initiate easing cycles in the coming quarters. If real interest rates can confirm entry into a downward channel, the asset allocation appeal of gold will be substantially enhanced.
Technical Recovery and Key Resistance Outlook
From a technical analysis perspective, the rebound in spot gold after testing the lowest point since March 31 shows the effectiveness of the support below. FXStreet's analysis model indicates that although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still in the momentum recovery phase, its upward trend suggests that bulls are regaining strength. If gold prices can effectively break through the psychological barrier of $4600 per ounce, the next key test level will move up to the May 1 high of $4660 per ounce. The longer-term bull-bear dividing line is near the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of $4703 per ounce. If fundamentals lack sustained positive factors, gold prices still face the risk of a secondary bottom test, with key support seen at $4351 per ounce.
Energy Price Fluctuations and the Tug-of-War with Inflation Expectations
The easing of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz directly led to an intraday decline in crude oil futures prices, creating a complex cross-impact on the gold market. On one hand, the drop in oil prices reduces global inflation expectations, weakening the traditional demand for gold as an inflation hedge. On the other hand, the decline in energy costs helps alleviate stagflation pressures in the real economy, improving global market risk appetite. Against the backdrop of rising Wall Street stock markets, gold and risk assets showed a rare simultaneous upward trend. This indicates that in the current complex macro environment, the continued buying by central banks and investors' long-term concerns about the devaluation of fiat currency credit are replacing single risk aversion sentiment as the more important force supporting the upward shift of the gold price center.
