This week, the futures market showed significant divergence under the influence of multiple factors, with varied performances across different commodities. Black metal products remained firm due to expectations of winter stockpiling, while the energy and chemical sector saw PVC and soda ash remain weak due to supply-demand imbalances. The agricultural sector faced increased pressure, and international oil prices saw a slight rebound supported by fundamentals. Below are the detailed performances and analyses of key products.
Soda Ash and Glass: Ongoing Supply-Demand Game, Price Fluctuations
The soda ash market showed clear division on both supply and demand sides this week, with prices maintaining a fluctuating trend. Supply data indicated that soda ash capacity utilization rose to 83.97%, with production reaching 700,000 tons. National enterprise inventories decreased by 45,000 tons from the previous week. However, the demand side showed variations, with expectations of declining demand due to photovoltaic glass cold repairs, while the demand for float glass remained relatively stable.
The float glass market was generally weak, with the average price on November 21st at 1,391 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.71% from the previous week. Supply-demand data showed that the daily melting volume of float glass was maintained at 158,500 tons, while photovoltaic glass capacity decreased by 1.32% on a week-on-week basis. Although inventory reduction alleviated pressure to some extent, weak demand weighed on prices, and it is expected that soda ash and glass will continue to fluctuate in the short term.
PVC: Continuing Supply-Demand Imbalance, Weak Price Fluctuations
This week, the PVC market continued its weakness, with prices fluctuating downward. In the East China market, the carbide-based PVC average price fell to 5,160 yuan/ton, and the ethylene-based PVC average price dropped to 5,420 yuan/ton. From a supply-demand perspective, production enterprise inventories decreased but social inventories increased from the previous week, highlighting the persistent supply-demand imbalance.
Supply data showed that PVC capacity utilization was at 78.44%, with a slight increase from the previous week, but expectations of environmental protection restrictions limited increments. The demand side entered the off-season, with weak hard product demand. Although soft products remained stable, they could not compensate for the loss, and export orders were lackluster due to international competition and policy effects. It is expected that PVC prices will continue narrow fluctuations in the short term.
Black Metal Products: Supported by Winter Stockpiling Expectations, Slight Price Strengthening
This week, black metal products showed firmness, with rebar prices slightly rising. Changzhi construction material prices increased by 30 yuan to 3,220 yuan/ton, with blast furnace operating rates down to 81.93% from the previous week, but ironmaking capacity utilization remained high at 88.53%. Market expectations for winter stocking became an important support for price increases.
In the coal and coke segment, spot price increases were limited. It is expected that during the winter stockpiling period, coke spot prices will be raised by 150 yuan/ton, and coking coal prices will be adjusted by about 100-200 yuan/ton. Although black metal products have some support in the short term, medium-term attention must be paid to supply pressure and changes in downstream demand.
Agricultural Products and International Oil Prices: Pressure and Rebound Coexisting
In the agricultural products sector, soybean meal continued to be under pressure due to ample supply, making price rebounds difficult. Meanwhile, international oil prices slightly rebounded, supported by fundamentals. The WTI crude oil futures price rose to $70.13, and Brent oil remained stable at $74.23, showing relative stability.
Market Driven by Fundamentals, Divergent Trends Continue
Overall, the trading logic of this week's futures market is gradually returning to fundamentals, with macroeconomic policy adjustments and supply-side changes becoming the core factors affecting prices. In the short term, black metal products are relatively firm supported by winter stockpiling expectations, while the energy and chemical sector and agricultural products continue to be pressured by supply-demand imbalances. In the future, divergent trends are expected to continue, and investors should closely monitor policy trends and further changes in supply-demand structures.
