As the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches, a period typically marked by brisk sales of mooncakes, this year's market appears unusually quiet.
"In previous years, the fortnight leading up to the Mid-Autumn Festival was our peak sales period. We worked until dawn to fulfill orders, but this year, orders have noticeably decreased, and work intensity has significantly reduced," said Lin Feng (a pseudonym), a sales manager at a mooncake OEM factory in Shenzhen, on September 2nd. The market changes this year caught him off guard; despite securing contracts with several top-tier hotels in Shenzhen, orders have markedly declined.
Lin Feng's experience is not an isolated case. According to data from the China Bakery and Confectionery Industry Association, in 2023, China's mooncake production reached 320,000 tons with sales totaling 22 billion yuan. However, this year's mooncake production is expected to be 300,000 tons with sales of approximately 20 billion yuan, a slight decrease compared to last year.
As consumers increasingly emphasize cost-effectiveness, traditional mooncake brands face greater challenges. Additionally, the entry of cross-industry brands and new retail players has intensified competition in an already shrinking market.
OEM Factory Orders Decrease, Work Models Shift
Data from the China Bakery and Confectionery Industry Association indicates that this year, the price range of mooncake gift boxes has become more affordable, with mainstream prices ranging from 70 to 220 yuan, down from last year's 80 to 280 yuan. For example, the leading products on the Bupu Supermarket fresh e-commerce platform are about 100 yuan cheaper than last year.
The changes in the market are particularly evident to frontline workers.
Li Xia (a pseudonym), who works at a star-rated hotel in Shenzhen, has observed a noticeable cooling in consumer spending. She noticed a significant reduction in events like graduation and full moon banquets at the hotel this year, and guests have generally lowered their budgets. In previous years, customers often chose banquet tables costing 3,000 yuan each, but this year, most have reduced their budgets to 1,600 yuan per table. Even for morning tea, the per capita spending has dropped from 300 yuan to around 160 yuan.
"In past years, morning tea guests liked to order high-end dim sum like shrimp dumplings and shumai, but this year, they are opting for more cost-effective options like barbecued pork buns and custard buns," Li Xia said.
Mooncake sales have also been similarly affected. Last year, the hotel where she works sold 13,000 boxes of mooncakes, but this year, even after lowering the sales target to 10,000 boxes, the sales situation remains bleak.
"In past years, during the morning tea period on weekends, we could sell 100 to 200 boxes of mooncakes. This year, selling 10 boxes on a weekend is considered good. Customers who once bought 10 boxes at a time now only buy two and ask for discounts," Li Xia lamented.
This sluggish sales trend has also impacted OEM factories. Zhang Zhao (a pseudonym), a sales manager at a large mooncake OEM factory in Guangzhou, noted that this year's order situation is more unstable than in previous years. Many customers waited until the last month before the Mid-Autumn Festival to place orders, and the order volume decreased by 20% compared to previous years.
To make up for the reduction in orders, Zhang Zhao had to develop new clients, but even so, the overall order volume growth fell short of expectations. Compared to smaller factories, Zhang Zhao's factory is relatively fortunate, being a leading player in the industry. Although the growth rate is not as high as in previous years, the order volume has still increased. Conversely, many small factories, facing insufficient orders, have started to implement a "three days on, one day off" production mode.
Early Promotions, Thin Profits
In addition to the decline in orders, traditional mooncake brands also face competitive pressure from cross-industry brands.
In recent years, with the rise of the "low-sugar, low-fat" health trend, traditional mooncakes like double-yolk white lotus paste and mixed nuts have gradually lost their appeal to young consumers. Many new consumer brands have introduced innovative mooncake flavors like jasmine cheese and coconut mango, which are more competitively priced than traditional mooncakes.
Faced with market competition, various brands have launched promotional activities earlier this year. The hotel where Li Xia works started offering a 25% discount a month before the Mid-Autumn Festival to clear inventory. Maxim's Mooncakes also launched a 10% discount 2-3 days earlier than usual.
Take the hotel where Li Xia works as an example: excluding about 1,000 boxes given to guests, this year's mooncake business revenue is about 1.24 million yuan. Deducting the cost of 75 yuan per box, the profit is only 500,000 yuan, with a profit margin of about 40%. In contrast, the hotel banquet business has a profit margin of as high as 65%. Li Xia admitted that selling mooncakes this year has yielded almost no profit.
