- The latest forecast from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development indicates that if disruptions in maritime and key energy infrastructure caused by conflicts in the Middle East become prolonged, global economic growth rates in 2026 and 2027 could slow to 2.1% and 1.8%, respectively, with multiple economies potentially facing recession pressures.
- According to stress test simulations, if the Strait of Hormuz experiences severe obstruction, the transportation costs of major global commodities and industrial raw materials will significantly rise, leading to an additional structural risk of increasing global inflation rates by 0.4 and 1.3 percentage points over the next two years.
- Given the marginal changes in the geopolitical environment, the OECD has revised its baseline forecast for global economic growth this year from last year's 3.4% down to 2.8%, with a particular warning that high-energy-consuming AI industry investments and vulnerable developing economies will bear the brunt of the impact.
Prolonged Middle East Conflict Triggers Supply Chain Stress Test
According to the latest global economic outlook report released by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), current transnational geopolitical conflicts are posing a severe test to the long-term resilience of the global economy. Chief Economist Ristifano Scarpetta emphasized at the press conference that if confrontations between relevant sovereign states cannot be quickly resolved in the short term, structural disconnections and reconstruction costs of supply chains will be inevitable. In the baseline scenario calculations, the OECD has revised the 2026 global growth rate estimate from the previous expansion range down to 2.8%, with a slight recovery expected to 3.1% in 2027. However, this macroeconomic recovery path is highly dependent on whether the energy price shock can begin to ease substantially by mid-year, as marginal deterioration of supply chains will directly reshape the macroeconomic trajectory.
Energy Chokepoints Exacerbate Global Inflation Risks
The report focuses on quantitative simulations of severe scenarios where global core shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz are obstructed. Model results show that if disruptions in global shipping and core energy infrastructure extend into 2027, the commodity supply chain will remain on a high-cost trajectory with limited supply. In this worst-case downside risk scenario, the import costs of crude oil, fertilizers, and key industrial raw materials will be significantly elevated, leading to an additional increase in global inflation rates by 0.4 and 1.3 percentage points in 2026 and 2027, respectively, above the baseline forecast. The renewed rise in the inflation center means that major central banks worldwide, already dealing with stagflation pressures, will face a comprehensive market reassessment of their monetary policy pricing paths.
Capital Expenditure Pressure Drags on High-Energy Emerging Industries
With the continued rise in geopolitical risk premiums, global capital market volatility is expected to increase systematically, and the risk appetite of micro-entities will be significantly suppressed. The OECD points out that the prolongation of conflicts will directly lead to a significant weakening of corporate investment willingness worldwide. Particularly in high-energy-consuming emerging industries such as artificial intelligence (AI) and niche semiconductor manufacturing, which have seen high demand for power resources and computing infrastructure in recent years, strategic contraction in capital expenditure may suppress the pace of technological iteration. Meanwhile, the labor market is also unlikely to remain unaffected in the face of production-side pressures, with concerns about rising unemployment rates in some structurally pressured industries.
Policy Tool Combinations and Cross-Border Liquidity Defense
In the face of significant macroeconomic downside risks, the OECD suggests that policymakers should strengthen international policy coordination in the short term and use measures such as timely release of strategic oil reserves to stabilize sharp price fluctuations in the spot market. In the long term, the fundamental way to hedge risks is to diversify energy supply channels and continuously strengthen the systemic resilience of cross-border supply chains. The report particularly warns that vulnerable developing economies, due to the high proportion of food and energy expenditures in national consumption and their relatively limited fiscal space and social safety nets, are most susceptible to the impact of cross-border liquidity tensions in this shock. Therefore, accelerating the reduction of excessive reliance on traditional fossil fuels has become a core variable in maintaining macro-financial stability.
