After the US March inflation data roughly met expectations, Wall Street opened only slightly higher on Friday, with overall risk appetite remaining restrained. The S&P 500 index opened up 0.21%, the Nasdaq rose 0.40%, and the Dow Jones increased only 0.03%, indicating that the market did not noticeably shift towards risk-taking because the "data passed," but continued to focus mainly on whether the Middle East ceasefire could hold steady. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the March CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year, the core CPI increased 2.6% year-on-year, with the overall CPI rising 0.9% month-on-month.
Inflation and Interest Rates
The greatest significance of this set of data for the market is not in generating expectations for ease but in reinforcing the judgment that the "Federal Reserve will continue to wait and see." San Francisco Fed President Daly told Reuters on the 10th that the oil price shock triggered by the Iran war has extended the time for inflation to return to the 2% target, which may cause the Fed to maintain a wait-and-see approach on interest rates. She noted that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong, but if oil prices remain high, both inflation and growth will be dragged, and policy adjustments must be weighed between the two.
Middle East Variables
What truly weighs down market sentiment is still the uncertainty in the implementation of the ceasefire. Reuters reported on the 10th that the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, while clashes between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon continued, and both the U.S. and Iran view these factors as violations of the ceasefire arrangement. This means that even if U.S. inflation data does not exceed expectations, energy, shipping, and geopolitical risks are still sufficient to limit the upward slope of U.S. stocks, making investors more inclined to maintain hedges rather than aggressively increase positions before the weekend.
Focus on Individual Stocks
Among pre-market individual stocks, TSMC provided some support for the tech sector. According to Reuters, TSMC's first-quarter revenue surged 35% year-on-year, reaching NT$1.134 trillion, higher than the LSEG estimate of NT$1.125 trillion, reflecting the continued robust demand related to AI. For U.S. stocks, this helps maintain resilience in the semiconductor and AI chains, but it is not enough to completely offset the macro constraints brought by the Middle East situation and interest rate outlook.
The following multilingual SEO titles, Meta Descriptions, and cover MJ instructions are uniformly based on four verified facts: U.S. March CPI year-on-year 3.3%, core CPI year-on-year 2.6%; S&P and Nasdaq opened slightly higher; Daly says oil price shock extended inflation decline time; Strait of Hormuz and Lebanon frontlines continue to pressure ceasefire prospects.
