Since October, the market for long-term credit bonds has been sluggish. According to the latest statistics, in October, 32 credit bonds with maturities over 10 years were issued, totaling 31.618 billion yuan. As of November, only 10 similar bonds have been issued, amounting to 10.4 billion yuan, showing a clear lack of enthusiasm for new ultra-long credit bonds and low trading activity. Industry insiders analyze that under the recent bond market adjustments, fluctuations and liquidity issues in ultra-long credit bonds have caused widespread concern among investors.
Bond market data also reflects this trend. Between the end of October and the first week of November, prices of government bonds over 10 years showed signs of recovery, but the decline in ultra-long credit bonds remained significant, underperforming the mainstream short-term credit bonds. Several institutions maintain a cautious stance on the market, mainly focusing on short-term varieties. Only some insurance funds have allocated long-term bonds due to relatively stable liabilities, but overall, the willingness to actively allocate ultra-long credit bonds remains weak.
From the demand side, the market generally prefers short-duration varieties, especially insurance institutions with relatively stable liabilities becoming the main allocation force. Data shows that the coupon rate for the "24 Shenzhen Metro MTN009B" issued by Shenzhen Metro at the end of October was 2.9%, but the effective subscription multiple was only 1.12 times, indicating a market wait-and-see attitude. Some analyses suggest that although ultra-long municipal investment bonds have relatively good returns in a bond bull market, under the current highly volatile market, capital gains losses from ultra-long credit bonds might dampen overall portfolio returns, making holding period and position control critical.
Additionally, fluctuations in interest rate bonds over 10 years have had a considerable impact on the performance of the ultra-long credit bond market. Since late October, the transaction rate of ultra-long interest rate bonds fell from a high of 2.38% to 2.27% in early November, a range fluctuation of 11 basis points. In the current market environment where range-bound trading is apparent, most institutions opt for short-term band trading, but from a medium to long-term perspective, the yield advantage of ultra-long bonds remains.
