Gold sector: Last night, gold continued to decline slightly, with the price once breaking below the critical threshold of $2300, facing considerable downward pressure in the short term. U.S. inflation data has been dropping, reducing gold's short-term attractiveness to capital.
In May, the U.S. PPI fell by 0.2% month-on-month, while the expectation was a rise of 0.1%. Year-on-year, the PPI increased by 2.2% in May, slightly below the 2.5% anticipated, following a 2.3% rise in April. Combined with the previously announced CPI data, this largely proves that U.S. inflation pressures are easing.
However, a single month's inflation data is not enough for the Federal Reserve to act in advance. Fed Chairman Powell has stated that he does not want to be driven to action by any single data point and needs to see more consistent positive data. The dot plot indicates that the Fed may lower interest rates at most once this year, and high rates might be maintained longer than the market expects.
Technical analysis: The daily gold chart shows a mid-sized bearish candle, engulfing the previous bullish one. The 4-hour cycle failed to challenge the previous range, with the price center shifting downwards and the moving averages diverging bearishly. In the short term, there is a high probability of further declines. Attention can be given to resistance at the $2318 level.
Oil sector: Last night, oil prices maintained narrow fluctuations, but the price center showed signs of moving downwards. There is currently fierce competition between oil-producing and oil-consuming countries, and OPEC+'s production cuts may provide limited support to oil prices.
OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais issued a statement refuting the International Energy Agency's prediction of a severe oil surplus, asserting that the world will still need fossil fuels in the coming decades. Previously, the IEA report stated that by 2030, the world will have an oil surplus of about 8 million barrels per day.
According to a Standard & Poor's report, OPEC+ production two years ago was 2.2 million barrels per day higher than now, while non-OPEC+ total oil production has increased by 3.1 million barrels, with more than half of the increase coming from the U.S. This means that the reduction by OPEC+ has been filled by other oil-producing countries, making their cuts potentially insignificant and providing limited support to oil prices.
Technical analysis: The daily oil chart shows small candles with long upper wicks, which might indicate emerging market divergences. The 4-hour cycle repeatedly shows topping candle patterns, increasing the probability of continued short-term adjustments. Attention can be given to resistance at the $78.20 level.
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