Bitcoin Falls Below $85,000 as Market Reacts Coolly to Trump's Reserve Plan
Despite President Trump's strong push for cryptocurrency development since taking office and his announcement on Monday to create the "U.S. Strategic Crypto Reserve," the Bitcoin market has failed to bounce back. As of the press time, Bitcoin has fallen below $85,000, after briefly surging to $93,000 following the news. However, after a short-lived excitement, investors quickly shifted their focus to Bitcoin's future trends and potential pullback depth.
Market Division: Will Bitcoin Drop to $70,000?
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the Bitcoin derivatives exchange BitMEX, recently predicted that although Bitcoin remains in a bull cycle, it could potentially fall back to $70,000 in the worst-case scenario. He noted that if the U.S. stock indices S&P 500 or NASDAQ 100 experience a significant 20%-30% correction, or if a major financial institution faces a bankruptcy crisis, Bitcoin might fall to the $70,000-$80,000 range.
However, Hayes remains optimistic about Bitcoin in the long term. He believes that after global market turmoil, Bitcoin could eventually surpass $1,000,000. "We'll buy on dips without leverage and patiently wait for a major financial crisis in the global markets (especially in the U.S.), which will be the moment for Bitcoin to truly take off," he said.
Institutional Investors Cautious with Bitcoin's Short-term Fluctuation Range Between $72,000-$110,000
Gracy Chen, Managing Director at Bitget, echoed similar sentiments. She believes that despite Bitcoin attracting more institutional investors, prices may still pull back to the $72,000-$80,000 range in the short term.
Chen pointed out that sovereign wealth funds and family offices remain in a wait-and-see state, without making significant entries. "Even though the U.S. government, Florida, Texas, and countries like the Czech Republic are discussing Bitcoin reserves, there hasn't been substantial action. For example, Trump's Bitcoin reserve plan seems more like a promise rather than a concrete execution," she added.
Moreover, she mentioned that the $100,000 price level is still a psychological barrier for many institutions. "Just a year ago, before the Bitcoin ETF was approved, its trading price was only in the $30,000-$40,000 range, and now the price has doubled. Therefore, many institutions are still cautiously assessing whether to enter at the current price," she explained.
Profit-taking Pressure Increases, Future Trends Remain Uncertain
Chen also noted that many early ETF investors bought Bitcoin in the $40,000-$50,000 range, and now that prices have risen by 100%, some investors are choosing to take profits, increasing market selling pressure. "For traditional financial investors, a 100% return in a year is quite impressive, so some profit-taking is normal," she said.
In the short term, Chen expects Bitcoin to fluctuate between $90,000 and $110,000, with the possibility of dipping to an $80,000 low. "To be precise, I believe Bitcoin's price fluctuation range is between $72,000 and $80,000," she stated.
Bitcoin Market Outlook: Coexistence of Pullback Risks and Long-term Optimism
Despite the short-term market facing pullback pressure, industry experts remain generally optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects. The Trump administration's friendly stance towards cryptocurrencies, discussions in multiple U.S. regions to incorporate Bitcoin as reserves, and rising interest from institutional investors may support Bitcoin prices in the future. In the short term, however, the macroeconomic environment, decisions by institutional investors, and market liquidity will continue to impact Bitcoin's price volatility.
Investors need to pay attention to the support level of Bitcoin around $80,000 and the changes in global financial markets, especially the performance of the U.S. stock market. If financial markets experience a significant correction, Bitcoin may further decline. But if market sentiment improves, Bitcoin could challenge the $100,000 level again.
