The latest data shows that as of September 6, international crude oil futures prices have declined by more than 2%, hitting a new low since June 2023. The price of WTI crude oil futures for October delivery fell by 7.99% this week, while the price of Brent crude oil futures for November delivery fell by 9.82% this week.
At the same time, the price of U.S. RBOB gasoline futures fell by nearly 9.4% this week, dropping to $1.90 per gallon. This price level is the lowest since November 2021, meaning gasoline prices have returned to pre-Russian-Ukraine conflict levels.
According to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), as of Friday, the average retail price of regular unleaded gasoline was $3.296 per gallon, down more than 10% from this April’s peak, reaching a nearly six-month low.
Analysts pointed out that the bleak outlook for the international crude oil market, coupled with lower-than-expected U.S. demand, could lead to further declines in gasoline prices. This would help to alleviate Republican presidential candidate Trump's attacks on Harris regarding living costs. In his speech at the New York Economic Club, Trump promised that if re-elected, he would take measures to increase fuel supply, aiming to cut energy prices in half. He criticized, "Harris can't lower the price of any goods because her energy policy is raising the cost of all commodities."
Bob McNally, president of the American consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group and former White House energy advisor, stated that the decline in oil prices might garner Harris some voter support. He noted, "Harris is lucky; the most notable living cost—oil prices—is going down."
Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at oil price tracking software GasBuddy, predicted that by Election Day in November, gasoline prices in up to 30 states might fall below $3 per gallon. He stated, "This timing is very favorable for Harris." DeHaan also mentioned, "The national average oil price might drop below the $3 mark for the first time since Biden took office, which is a long-awaited scene for Americans."
Although Trump might lose a significant attack point, it should be noted that the retail gasoline price is still nearly 40% higher than when Biden took office in January 2021. Trump promised that if elected, he would declare a "national emergency" to stimulate domestic energy production and swiftly approve more oil and gas exploration projects.
Kevin Book, managing director of consulting firm ClearView Energy Partners, said, "Republicans believe this topic will attract the attention of low-income, long-distance driving voters." With declining oil prices, Harris's election prospects might receive some positive momentum.
