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阿海分享内参

阿海分享内参

阿海阿海
2024-05-10
Summary:阿海分享内参

由于上周美国首次申请失业金人数超出预期,9日美元兑一篮子货币全面走弱。衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数下跌0.3%,在汇市尾市收于 105.227。

美国劳工部在9日早间公布的数据显示,上周美国首次申领失业救济的人数为23.1万,高于市场预期的21.2万和前一周修订后的20.9 万。

剑桥全球支付公司的首席市场策略师卡尔·沙莫塔 (Karl Schamotta)表示,高于预期的失业金申请数据公布后,美国国债收益率和美元本能地走低。

当日,美国 10年期国债收益率下跌2.2个基点,收于4.460%。

沙莫塔认为,最新周度失业数据有一些季节性扭曲引起,但近期经济数据在某种程度上显示美国经济增长在放缓。如果即将公布的美国消费者价格指数、生产者价格指数和零售数据均出现下跌,这可能刺破市场上基于美国例外论的交易。

美国旧金山联储银行行长玛丽•戴利 (Mary Daly)在当日表示,美国通胀前景的不确定性已经升高,在美联储获得更多信息之前,对货币政策进行预测是困难的。

日本央行在日本时间9日上午公布的信息显示,日本央行决策机构成员在4月份议息会议上表现出压倒性的鹰派立场,很多人认为需要持续稳定加息,日元得到提振。

摩根大通全球市场策略师David Lebovitz 表示,如果日元兑美元继续下滑,可能导致通胀预期不稳定。

他表示: “市场暗示,160可能是一个神奇的水平,有关方面不希望看到日元在这个水平之上走弱。”  “我认为,到160的时候,你会看到更多关于干预可能性的声音。”

Lebovitz 表示,日元走软有助于日本经济的通胀。不过虽然日本的消费价格增长是由日元贬值推动的,但如果日元继续贬值,“弊大于利”。今年早些时候我们看到的加息更多的是上限的一个提示,而不是朝着大幅收紧货币政策迈出的一步。

英国央行连续第六次维持基准利率在5.25%不变,符合市场预期。行长贝利表示,6 月份降息的可能性既没有被排除,也没有在计划之中。央行的降息幅度可能会超过目前市场定价的幅度。利率决议后,交易员加大了对英国央行降息的押注,倾向于6月首次降息。

周五 (5月 10日)亚市早盘,现货黄金小幅冲高,最高触及2348.26 美元/盎司,较周三收盘价上涨近40 美元。金价在周四攀升了 1%,收报2345.87 美元/盎司,此前美国劳工部公布的最新数据显示,上周美国初请失业金人数的增幅超过预期,从而加强了市场对美联储将在今年晚些时候降息的押注。另外,以色列打击拉法东部,停火谈判无果而终,也给仅仅提供避险支撑。

High Ridge Futures 另类投资和交易主管David Meger说:“我们看到的是美联储降息或降息可能发生的时间预期所带来的持续影响。”

他补充说,最新数据显示就业市场略有疲软,这增强了美联储降息可能早于此前预期的时间降息,从而支持了黄金和白银等市场。

较低的利率降低了持有黄金的机会成本。根据芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的美联储观察工具(FedWatch Tool),交易商目前认为美联储9月降息的概率约为67.9%。

展望后市,投资者的注意力将转向定于下周公布的美国消费者物价指数数据。

美元指数技术分析:

美指周四上涨在105.75之下遇阻,下跌在105.20之上受到支持,意味着美元短线上涨后有可能保持下跌的走势。如果美指今天上涨在105.60 之下遇阻, 后市下跌的目标将会指向105.00--104.85 之间。今天美指短线阻力在 105.40--105.45, 短线重要阻力在 105.55--105.60。今天美指短线支持在105.00--105.05, 短线重要支持在104.85--104.90。

欧元/美元技术分析:

欧美周四下跌在1.0720之上受到支持,上涨在1.0785之下遇阻,意味着欧美短线下跌后有可能保持上涨的走势。如果欧美今天下跌在1.0740 之上企稳, 后市上涨的目标将会指向1.0805--1.0825 之间。今天欧美短线阻力在 1.0800--1.0805, 短线重要阻力在1.0820--1.0825。今天欧美短线支持在1.0760--1.0765, 短线重要支持在1.0740--1.0745。

黄金技术分析:

黄金周四下跌在2306.00之上受到支持,上涨在2344.00 之下遇阻,意味着黄金短线下跌后有可能保持上涨的走势。如果黄金今天下跌在 2329.00 之上下企稳, 后市上涨的目标将会指向 2353.00--2367.00 之间。今天黄金短线阻力在 2352.00--2353.00,短线重要阻力在2366.00--2367.00。今天黄金短线支持在2329.00--2330.00,短线重要支持在2314.00--2315.00。

screenshot-20240510-111121

screenshot-20240510-111135

市场波动:

欧洲股市收盘:

德国DAX30指数5月9日 (周四) 收盘上涨197.28点, 涨幅1.07%, 报18685.35点; 英国富时100指数5月9日 (周四)收盘上涨26.58点, 涨幅0.32%, 报8380.63点; 法国CAC40指数5月9日(周四) 收盘上涨56.24点, 涨幅0.69%,报8187.65点; 欧洲斯托克50指数5月9日 (周四) 收盘上涨16.08点, 涨幅0.32%, 报5054.25 点; 西班牙IBEX35指数5月9日 (周四) 收盘下跌105.89点, 跌幅0.95%, 报11047.11点; 意大利富时 MIB指数5月9日 (周四) 收盘上涨191.59点, 涨幅0.56%, 报34343.00点。

美国股市收盘:

道琼斯指数5月9 日 (周四) 收盘上涨331.37点, 涨幅0.85%, 报39387.76点; 标普 500指数5月 9日 (周四) 收盘上涨 27.71 点, 涨幅0.53%, 报 5215.38点; 纳斯达克综合指数5月 9 日 (周四) 收盘上涨43.51 点, 涨幅0.27%, 报16346.27点。

贵金属收盘:

现货黄金5月9日 (周四) 涨超1%, 并接连突破2310、2320、2330、2340关口, 最终收涨1.61%, 报 2345.85美元/盎司; 现货白银5月 9 日 (周四) 收涨3.65%, 报28.31 美元/盎司。

CWG 后市预测:

美元今天短线以逢高做空为主,破位止损,有盈利30个点以上就设好止赢,在美国开市前撤出所有没有成交的挂单。本策略适合保证金,实盘可作参考。

美元指数:可以在105.55--104.85 的区间的上限卖出,有效破位30个点止损,目标在区间的下限。

欧元/美元:可以在1.0825--1.0745的区间下限买入,有效破位40个点止损,目标在区间的上限。

英镑/美元:可以在1.2580--1.2470的区间下限买入,有效破位40个点止损,目标在区间的上限。

美元/瑞郎:可以在0.9090--0.9030的区间上限卖出,有效破位30个点止损,目标在区间的下限。

美元/日元:可以在155.90--154.75的区间上限卖出,有效破位40个点止损,目标在区间的下限。

澳元/美元:可以在0.6655--0.6585的区间下限买入,有效破位40个点止损,目标在区间的上限。

美元/加元:可以在1.3720--1.3630的区间上限卖出,有效破位40个点止损,目标在区间的下限。

黄金:可以在2367.00--2330.00的区间的下限买入,有效破位10美元止损,目标在区间的上限。

screenshot-20240510-111208

screenshot-20240510-111214

screenshot-20240510-111224

screenshot-20240510-111236

单0.1 手就可以;风险承受能力超过50%以上,每1000美元做单 手就可以。

CWG Markets 作为一家FCA全授权并监管的交易服务商,本文所含内容及观点仅为一般信息,并未有将您的投资目标、财务状况和投资需求考虑在内。任何引用历史价格波动或价位水平的信息均基于我们的分析,并不表示或证明此类波动或价位水平有可能在未来重新发生。部分研究报告预测仅代表分析师个人观点,不作为投资建议,敬请广大用户者理性投资,注意风险。如果您有任何疑问,请寻求独立顾问的建议。

阿海

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account individual users' specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investing based on this is at one's own responsibility.

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