There is a slight easing in global geopolitical tensions as U.S. and Russian delegations hold talks in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, generating new hopes for a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio stated that the talks represent "the first step in ending the Ukraine crisis" and revealed that the U.S. and Russia reached four points of consensus on resolving bilateral issues and promoting the peaceful resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This has brought temporary relief to the market and eased some risk premiums.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump continues to escalate threats of tariffs, announcing that a decision on whether to impose new tariffs on key goods such as automobiles, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and lumber will be made within the next month. This move undoubtedly increases market uncertainty, especially as the global economy remains in a complex adjustment phase. Concerns over trade friction persist, and Trump's tariff policy continues to pressure the market.
In terms of the U.S. economy, although some data has rebounded, the New York Fed's manufacturing index and PMI index for February both exceeded expectations, yet there remain setbacks in the service sector and uncertainties in the housing market. The preliminary value of the U.S. February S&P Global Services PMI was 49.7, below the expected 53, indicating weak service sector performance. Additionally, U.S. data on housing starts and building permits for January was tepid, failing to fully offset concerns about an economic slowdown.
From the Federal Reserve, meeting minutes from January showed that despite generally stable U.S. economic data, Fed officials remain cautious about further rate cuts. The minutes mentioned discussions among officials on whether to further slow or pause the reduction of their balance sheet, fueling market expectations of a dovish Fed policy. However, the Fed's stance remains firm, with officials like Bowman and Daly emphasizing that rate cut decisions should remain cautious until a clearer downtrend in inflation is evident.
In Europe, economic data remains weak. Although the Eurozone manufacturing PMI and composite PMI have picked up, the overall economic situation is still relatively bleak. The Eurozone February ZEW economic sentiment index rose slightly to 24.2 from the previous value, but the current economic condition index remains in negative territory. European Central Bank officials are also cautious about continuing rate cuts, with Holzmann stating that inflation below the 2% target is not a sufficient reason for further cuts, making such decisions increasingly challenging.
Overall, Trump's tariff threats continue to impact the market, but as this factor gradually gets absorbed, the momentum for rising precious metals has somewhat weakened. At the same time, the situation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict shows slight easing, and the Federal Reserve maintains its cautious policy. These factors may lead to short-term adjustments in the precious metals market. Investors should keep an eye on future economic data and policy developments, particularly Federal Reserve decisions and further developments in U.S.-China trade relations.
