On Friday (November 15) during the Asian market session, US crude oil slightly declined and is currently trading around $68.17 per barrel. The latest crude oil inventory data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that US crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 2.1 million barrels last week, far exceeding analysts' previous expectations of a 750,000-barrel rise. This inventory data significantly exceeded expectations, indicating ample domestic oil supply in the US, raising market concerns that this could lead to short-term oil price pressure. The unexpected inventory increase has caused the market's expectations for oil demand to turn cautious, exerting a clear restraining effect on oil price rises.
Meanwhile, the US dollar index has been performing strongly recently, with two consecutive months of gains, and is currently close to the high reached in October 2023. Data indicates that the number of initial jobless claims in the US was lower than market expectations, suggesting the labor market remains robust. Recent hawkish statements by the Federal Reserve chairman have further supported the strong dollar. Within the Federal Reserve, there is still uncertainty over whether to cut interest rates in December, leading to divided market expectations. This strong dollar trend is causing pressure on dollar-denominated commodities, including crude oil. A stronger dollar typically increases the cost of purchasing commodities like crude oil, thereby dampening international demand and exerting downward pressure on oil prices.
From a technical perspective, US crude oil's daily line has not yet broken through the key box support level, currently fluctuating within the $67 to $70 per barrel range. Technical analysts point out that if this week's weekly closing price falls below the important support level of $67 per barrel, it could trigger further selling sentiment, accelerating the downward movement of oil prices. Such a trend could push oil prices to lower levels, leading to a short-term bearish sentiment in the oil market.
In addition, recent oil prices also face other uncertain factors. The prospect of a global demand slowdown leaves the market uncertain about future oil consumption, and the supply strategies of major oil-producing countries will also affect oil price trends. OPEC+ recently stated it would maintain the current production policy, which temporarily stabilized oil prices. However, demand-side concerns mean the overall outlook for the oil market remains under pressure. Analysts predict that upcoming oil price performance will be constrained by multiple factors, including the US dollar trend, US economic data, and the demand outlook from a slowing global economy.
In summary, oil prices face some downside risks in the current context of high inventories and a strong dollar, with the $67 per barrel support level being a crucial point of focus for the market. In the coming week, the market will closely watch the Federal Reserve's policy moves and subsequent EIA data to judge whether oil prices will be further pressured downward.
