Easter, a holiday meant to symbolize rebirth and peace, is overshadowed by a "paper ceasefire" on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield.
Despite Russian President Putin's unilateral announcement on April 20 of a 24-hour Easter ceasefire, claiming to "respect religious traditions and humanitarian needs," peace remained merely superficial. Both sides accused each other of launching thousands of attacks that day, rendering the ceasefire declaration meaningless. This development stunned the international community and rapidly heightened market risk aversion.
Accusations of thousands of attacks from both sides, no calm on the battlefield
The Russian Defense Ministry stated that Ukraine launched over 1000 attacks during the "ceasefire period," including 444 shellings and more than 900 drone harassments, causing civilian casualties near the border. Ukraine countered, saying Russian forces conducted 67 attacks on Easter, primarily targeting civilian infrastructure. Ukrainian President Zelensky mocked Moscow's "pretense of peace" and proposed the condition of a 30-day ceasefire extension—Russia must fully cease drone and missile attacks. The Kremlin coolly responded, denying receiving any extension orders.
Feedback from frontline soldiers and military bloggers indicated that conflict slightly eased in some areas, but true ceasefire remains distant.
US mediation marginalized, Europe fears reignited conflict
More worryingly, the US is quickly tightening its mediation stance. President Trump and Secretary of State Rubio recently made rare statements that if no substantial progress is seen in a few days, the US will consider exiting its mediator role. Rubio candidly stated, "We won't waste time indefinitely; if the gap is too wide, that will be the end." These remarks signal the White House's near despair about mediation prospects, causing unease in European diplomatic circles.
Despite Russia's claims of "some progress" in talks, Kremlin spokesman Peskov revealed that interactions with Washington are "extremely difficult." Adding to the complexity, US-Ukraine relations have also strained recently. The US is displeased with Zelensky's criticism of Trump's envoy as "echoing Russian narratives," viewing such remarks as further stalling negotiations.
Gold prices soar to new records, safe-haven assets shine again
In the backdrop of escalating geopolitical risks, investor risk aversion has surged. Spot gold prices significantly rose on Monday's Asian market opening, temporarily climbing over $40, reaching a historical high of $3373.98 per ounce, with a single-day increase exceeding 1.3%. The market widely believes that if the current situation worsens, particularly with large-scale missile attacks or increased NATO intervention risk, gold prices could repeat the surge seen at the onset of the 2022 conflict.
Long-term conflict risks escalate, global inflation shadows linger
Beyond the direct conflict, the Russia-Ukraine clash could cause global energy and food prices to continue rising, compounded by the unclear path of the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, maintaining upward pressure on global inflation. In this context, gold's inflation-resistant characteristics are again favored.
Conclusion: Peace elusive, risks reignite
The failure of the Easter ceasefire reveals the current deadlock in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the futility of mediation. With military stalemates and diplomatic rifts interwoven, the conflict may further progress into a prolonged, structural confrontation, and market risk aversion mechanisms might remain activated for the long term, making gold the key asset in this era of uncertainty.
