On the night of November 5th, American election results gradually unveiled, with preliminary results showing Trump temporarily leading over Harris. According to statistics as of 09:34 on November 6th Beijing time (20:20 local time on November 5th), Trump had obtained 105 electoral votes and Harris 27, both still far from the 270 needed to win. Meanwhile, the distribution of votes in both the House and the Senate was fiercely contested. Trump currently had 116 votes in the House compared to Harris's 83 votes, while in the Senate, Trump had 42 votes to Harris's 32 votes. As election results continued to unfold, market sentiment fluctuated significantly, notably impacting the U.S. dollar index.
As the election gradually showed Trump's lead, market expectations of his immigration and tariff policies strengthened. The common belief in the market was that Trump's economic policies tend to stimulate inflation, and his deregulation and tax cut measures could positively drive economic growth. Hence, the U.S. dollar index rose strongly in the Asian market on Wednesday, up 0.9% by 09:34 Beijing time to reach 104.34, marking the largest single-day gain in nearly seven months, and currently reporting at 104.20. Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year treasury yield was also boosted, once rising by 2% to 4.379%.
Due to the strong dollar, non-U.S. currencies were generally under pressure. The Euro against the dollar fell by 1% at one point in the Asian market to 1.0820, hitting a new low for nearly a week, currently quoted at 1.0837 with a daily drop of 0.87%; the British pound against the dollar once fell by 0.7%, now quoted at 1.2960; the dollar against the yen rose by 0.99% to 153.11, reaching the highest level in three trading days; the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar also fell by 0.87% to 0.6579, erasing all of Tuesday's gains. Technically, the 5-day, 10-day, and 21-day moving averages of the dollar index intertwined, with momentum indicators still neutral, indicating that the dollar may maintain its strength in the short term.
The stock index futures market also saw a general rise due to the election impact. S&P 500 futures rose 0.66%, Dow Jones futures rose 0.78%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.3%, reflecting investors' positive expectations of the election outcome. However, market analysts believe that the slight gap in election results and potential disputes may further increase market volatility, and investors still need to be wary of uncertainties.
In the spot gold market, with the market focusing on the dollar's movement, gold prices showed slight fluctuations, hitting a low of $2,732.56 per ounce, currently trading around $2,741.40 per ounce.
Overall, the market is closely watching the election results and their impact on macroeconomic policy. The strong rise of the dollar in the short term is pressing non-U.S. currencies, and investors expect further market volatility following the U.S. election developments.
