Gold Prices Surge and Recede, Dollar Rebound Dominates Pressure
On Tuesday, spot gold faced strong selling pressure after reaching a four-week high, closing down nearly 1% at approximately $3,352.30 per ounce. Previously, the price had hit its highest point since May 8 at $3,357.20. However, as the dollar index rose 0.5% during the day, gold lost its upward momentum because the dollar's rebound increased purchasing costs for non-U.S. buyers, weakening the safe-haven demand for gold.
U.S. gold futures were also under pressure, with the main contract closing down 0.6% at $3,377.10 per ounce. David Meger, head of metals at High Ridge Futures, said that the market is currently entering a summer trading lull, and gold prices may enter a phase of fluctuation and consolidation in the coming weeks.
The market's attention has now shifted to the upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls data and speeches by several Federal Reserve officials this Friday, as investors hope to gain new insights into future interest rate policies.
Oil Prices Reach Two-Week High Amid Ongoing Geopolitical Tensions
Unlike gold, international crude oil prices rose on Tuesday, with U.S. oil reaching $63.37 per barrel, setting a nearly two-week high with a gain of about 2%. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with increased U.S. pressure on Iran, has raised concerns about disruptions in oil supplies from the Middle East and Eastern Europe.
The escalation of geopolitical risks has heightened market expectations that OPEC+ member countries might face prolonged sanctions, thus supporting a rise in oil prices. Analysts note that in the current environment of high inflation and interest rate sensitivity, oil price fluctuations will continue to impact global energy markets and economic stability.
Wall Street Rebounds, Chip Sector Shines Bright
U.S. stocks generally closed higher on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq showing the strongest performance among the three major indexes, closing up 0.81% at 19,398.96 points. The S&P 500 index rose 0.58% to 5,970.37 points, and the Dow Jones increased by 0.51%, ending at 42,519.64 points.
The key driver of the market's rise was the strong performance of the chip sector. Nvidia's stock rose by 2.9%, and Broadcom surged by 3.2%, hitting an all-time high. Broadcom had previously announced that its latest AI accelerator chip had started delivery, and the market responded positively.
U.S. Trade Negotiation Pressures Intensify, Tariff Policies in Focus
Reuters reported on a draft internal letter stating that the Trump administration has asked multiple countries to submit their "best proposals" for trade negotiations by Wednesday. Investors are closely monitoring the progress of the talks, hoping to avoid another round of significant tariff hikes.
Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer at Northlight Asset Management, warned that if the U.S. implements far higher-than-expected tariffs, it could likely lead to an economic recession. However, he also noted that the U.S. is currently engaged in active negotiations with countries including the UK, Japan, and the EU, which has enhanced market optimism about the economic outlook.
Employment and Orders Data Show Divergence, Economic Resilience Still Tested
Data from the U.S. Department of Labor showed a slight increase in job vacancies in April, but the number of layoffs also significantly grew, indicating initial signs of a cooling labor market. Additionally, U.S. factory orders in April fell sharply by 3.7%, as the growth momentum brought by pre-tariff anticipation had dissipated.
The market generally expects that if trade tensions do not significantly improve, the manufacturing sector may remain under pressure, while non-farm data will further verify whether the resilience of the U.S. economy can withstand policy shocks.
Divergence in Precious Metals and Energy Markets Intensifies
Apart from gold, spot silver also fell, closing at $34.51 per ounce, while still maintaining near a seven-month high during the day. Platinum and palladium saw slight increases, closing at $1,073.14 and $1,009.83, respectively.
Fluctuating market sentiment between safe-haven and inflation expectations is putting pressure on gold and silver movements. Meanwhile, the oil market, constrained by supply concerns, is likely to maintain a slightly strong volatility pattern in the short term. Investors still need to pay attention to the Fed's policy direction and developments in global geopolitical risks.
