On Tuesday (December 10), the price of US crude oil saw a slight drop during the Asian trading session, trading near $68.22 per barrel. Yesterday, US crude oil rebounded over 1%, recovering Friday's losses, with the candlestick chart showing an engulfing pattern. Nevertheless, the oil market still faces many uncertainties, especially the dramatic changes in Syria's political situation and the re-escalation of global geopolitical risks.
Recently, the Syrian Prime Minister announced the agreement to transfer power to the rebel-led National Salvation Government, marking the official collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime. Previously, the rebels had seized the Syrian capital, Damascus, with Bashar fleeing to Russia. Although the Syrian people hold hope for a change in power, the situation remains turbulent, increasing external concerns over future developments.
US Secretary of State Blinken warned that ISIS could re-emerge during the transition period, threatening the stability of Syria and the entire Middle East. The US has already targeted approximately 75 ISIS sites in Syria and stated it will take all measures to prevent the terrorist group's resurgence.
This political shift undoubtedly adds uncertainty to the crude oil market. According to Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, changes in the Syrian situation could raise the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East, thereby affecting oil prices. As the Syrian situation evolves further, the global oil market may face more price fluctuations.
On the demand side, the expected recovery in Asia's demand provides support for the oil price rebound. However, the current rise in oil prices is more of an emotional release, as the market still needs to focus on the pressures of the high dollar and changes in the Federal Reserve's policies. Investors should also watch for the upcoming US CPI data and the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision, awaiting further fundamental signals.
In summary, although oil prices have seen a short-term rebound due to the turmoil in Syria's political situation and rising demand in Asia, the market continues to face multiple challenges. In the coming weeks, it may continue to be influenced by geopolitical risks and macroeconomic factors.
