On March 6, 2026, Goldman Sachs stated that the market lacks confidence in the protective measures proposed by U.S. President Trump for oil and gas transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. Samantha Dart, Co-Head of Global Commodity Research at Goldman Sachs, pointed out that despite Trump's proposal to ensure smooth energy transportation through the Strait by offering insurance and naval escorts, there are still significant doubts about the feasibility of these measures. Dart explained that escorting the vast number of tankers may be difficult in practice, and the effectiveness of these measures in preventing the increasing drone attacks is also a concern for the market.
Strait of Hormuz Shutdown Shocks Global Oil Market
Since the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East last weekend, the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping channel, has effectively been shut down. Some Persian Gulf oil-producing countries are even facing the challenge of forced production stoppages, bringing significant uncertainty to global energy supplies.
Goldman Adjusts Oil Price Forecast, Still Far Below Current Market Price
Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs raised its second-quarter Brent crude price forecast to $76 per barrel, which is $10 higher than its previous estimate. However, this forecast is still far below the current global benchmark trading price of about $85 per barrel. Goldman analysts pointed out that this prediction is based on the assumption that the transport volume through the Strait of Hormuz is extremely low for five days and then gradually recovers over a month. However, if the disruption in the Strait lasts more than five weeks, the Brent crude price could surpass the $100 per barrel mark.
Despite the U.S. government's proactive measures, market confidence in the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains low, and oil price volatility may intensify in the coming weeks. With ongoing tensions in the Middle East, the global energy market will face more challenges.
