- Reuters exclusively reveals that Iraq and Pakistan have reached a regional energy transport agreement with Iran, allowing oil tankers and liquefied natural gas (LNG) vessels from both countries to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This indicates that Tehran is effectively gaining control over the allocation of passage rights through this crucial waterway.
- As an oil-producing country heavily reliant on crude oil exports, Iraq has successfully ensured the safe passage of two very large crude carriers (VLCCs), each carrying about 2 million barrels of oil, through the strait to safeguard its oil lifeline, which accounts for 95% of its national budget.
- The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies points out that Iran's strategy has shifted from mere physical blockade to targeted control of the corridor. If this model becomes normalized, the global supply of 20% of crude oil and liquefied natural gas will face a regular geopolitical risk premium reassessment.
Changes in Passage Rights through the Strait of Hormuz
Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions are reshaping the passage rules of the global energy chokepoint. According to multiple informed sources, the transport agreement reached by Iraq and Pakistan with Iran signifies a structural transformation in the nature of the Strait of Hormuz. Traditionally viewed as a neutral international energy channel, it has now been redefined as a controlled corridor. By issuing "passage permits" to specific allies or stakeholders, Iran effectively holds the power to intervene in the export of energy from the Persian Gulf. The military pressure from the United States and Israel on Iran, along with the blockade of Iranian ports, has not completely severed regional energy flows. Instead, it has prompted Iran to leverage its geographical advantage to establish an asymmetric maritime power game mechanism.
Systemic Risks to Iraq's Crude Oil Exports
For Iraq, securing the shipping channel through the Strait of Hormuz is a fundamental requirement for maintaining macroeconomic stability. Oil export revenues account for 95% of Iraq's national fiscal budget, and any prolonged logistical disruption could quickly escalate into a domestic economic or even political crisis. Statements from Iraqi oil ministry officials indicate that Baghdad is leveraging its traditional alliance with Tehran to strive for more unobstructed shipping batches. Although the smooth passage of two very large crude carriers (VLCCs) on Sunday alleviated Iraq's short-term fiscal pressure on a micro level, this transport assurance mechanism, built on bilateral understanding rather than international conventions, remains highly fragile.
Repricing Logic in the Energy Market
The conclusion of the aforementioned agreement has triggered complex pricing feedback in the spot and derivatives markets. On one hand, some crude oil can smoothly flow out of the Persian Gulf, marginally alleviating the market's extreme panic over a complete supply breakdown. On the other hand, this selective release mechanism significantly increases the compliance and insurance costs of crude oil trade. Details of the negotiations confirmed by shipping industry sources indicate that Western oil tankers without Iran's tacit approval may face higher risks of detention or denial. If global energy buyers are forced to pay differentiated freight premiums based on the shipowner's nationality or destination, the forward curve of Brent crude oil futures may exhibit a steeper contango structure, further exacerbating global imported inflation pressures.
