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Morgan Stanley predicts Bank of Canada will cut rates three more times this year.

Morgan Stanley predicts Bank of Canada will cut rates three more times this year.

TraderKnowsTraderKnows
2024-06-07
Summary：The Bank of Canada recently announced its first rate cut, but has not formally indicated any future actions.

Morgan Stanley expects the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates three more times in 2024, bringing the benchmark rate down to 4% by the end of the year.

This forecast was made after the Bank of Canada cut rates by 25 basis points (bp) at its June meeting, bringing the rate down to 4.75%.

According to Morgan Stanley, progress on inflation has increased the Bank of Canada's confidence in sustainably returning inflation to its 2% target. The Bank of Canada views encouraging inflation data as a key factor in initiating rate cuts.

Although the Bank of Canada remains cautious, stating it will "gradually" ease policy, Governor Macklem expressed confidence in further rate cuts. Analysts believe this indicates the "possibility of more policy normalization in 2024/2025."

Compared to its stance in April, this dovish shift by the Bank of Canada has an impact on the currency market.

"We continue to recommend holding long AUD/CAD positions into December 2024," Morgan Stanley stated, "We believe that Governor Macklem's tone shift supports our view that the market can expect more rate cuts from the Bank of Canada, and USD/CAD should rise in the coming months."

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The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account individual users' specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investing based on this is at one's own responsibility.

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Wiki

Interest rate cut

A rate cut refers to the central bank adjusting the interest rate level so that it is lower than before, as a form of monetary policy. It is a means by which the central bank affects the supply and demand relationship in the money market, money creation, and the level of interest rates by changing the level of interest rates. Rate cuts are usually used to counter inflation, stimulate economic growth, or alleviate economic downturn pressures.

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