International Oil Prices Rise, Supply Strain Dominates Market
On Thursday, international crude oil prices rebounded strongly. WTI crude oil for August delivery rose by 1.7%, closing at $67.54 per barrel, while Brent crude for September delivery increased by 1.5%, closing at $69.52 per barrel. Traders reacted sharply to tensions in the Middle East and declining US inventories, driving the market higher.
John Evans, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, pointed out that although recent production has increased, inventory data shows a significant drop, indicating robust consumer demand. According to the latest weekly report released by the U.S. government, U.S. crude inventories fell significantly by 3.9 million barrels last week, far exceeding market expectations. This has become a key driver of the current rise in oil prices.
Geopolitical Risks Refocus, Middle East Situation Raises Concerns
Markets are refocusing on turmoil in the Middle East. Israel's airstrike in Syria and a drone attack on oil fields in the Kurdistan region of Iraq are significant variables for traders. The latter has led to a daily reduction of 150,000 barrels in the region's oil production, with partial damage to local energy infrastructure, influencing the situation further.
Analysts believe that such events not only disrupt supply in the short term but also amplify concerns about potential future supply chain interruptions, prompting risk-averse capital to flow into the commodity sector, especially the oil market.
Trump's Tariff Statement Spurs Caution, Oil Price Volatility Intensifies
On the same day, U.S. President Trump announced plans to issue a new round of tariff notifications to multiple trading partners while attempting partial agreements with the EU and China. The market perceives this move as adding uncertainty to global trade prospects, which may affect the future growth path of global oil demand.
Panmure Liberum analyst Ashley Kelty noted that with the global economic outlook swayed by tariff policies, short-term oil prices will remain highly volatile. While there may be correction pressures in the medium term, short-term volatility is expected to stay high.
Tropical Disturbance Risk Controllable, Limited Climate Impact
Additionally, tropical weather factors briefly caught market attention. A tropical disturbance in the northern Gulf of Mexico is being closely monitored by the U.S. National Hurricane Center. Although not expected to develop into a storm, it will bring heavy rainfall to Louisiana.
Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group, noted that while extreme weather has not yet directly affected oil production facilities, market sentiment remains highly alert to any potential disruptions. He believes the market currently lacks a "clear main line," with everyone waiting for a decisive "shoe drop" signal to guide trends.
Structural Factors Dominate Trends, Short-term Risk Premiums May Persist
Looking ahead, oil prices will continue to be influenced by supply disruptions and demand expectations. Against the backdrop of an unclear global economic outlook, frequent geopolitical risks, and shrinking U.S. inventories, the crude oil market will maintain a state of high volatility.
Analysts generally believe that if geopolitical situations do not ease and inventories continue to decline, oil prices have the potential to rise further. However, given the backdrop of slowing global economic growth and tightened monetary policies, the rise in the oil market may be somewhat constrained.
