Financial Calendar
May 08 (Wednesday) Data and Financial Events (Beijing Time)
14:00 Germany March Adjusted Industrial Output Monthly
22:00 U.S. March Wholesale Sales Monthly
22:30 U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventory up to May 3rd of the Current Week
U.S. EIA Cushing Crude Oil Inventory up to May 3rd of the Current Week
U.S. EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventory up to May 3rd of the Current Week
23:00 U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson Speaks on the Economy
01:00 U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note Auction - Winning Bid Rate up to May 8th
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note Auction - Bid-to-Cover Ratio up to May 8th
Market Review
On Tuesday, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Kashkari stated that his estimate of the neutral interest rate has been moderately revised from 2% to 2.5%, believing it is still too early to declare progress in inflation has stalled. If necessary, interest rates will be raised, with the most likely outcome being the maintenance of current rates for an extended period. The guidance from June's dot plot may indicate two, one, or no rate cuts this year. Despite a fall to a daily low of 105.04 before the U.S. market opened, the dollar index rose throughout the day, recovering to close at 105.37.
Today's Focus
Dollar Index: With the trend continuing upward after holding above 105, short positions can maintain their stance looking upwards. Resistance is found in the 105.7-105.9 area, with a proper reduction advised once reached. Support at the 105.2 line will be crucial today; a stable rebound can sustain short upward positions.
Euro to U.S. Dollar: After a second upward test of the 1.078-1.08 area, the pair fell back, showing a minor double-top pattern. Today's focus is on resistance at the 1.077 line for continued short selling. Short-term support lies at the 1.07 mark, with a break below potentially heading to previous lows at 1.06.
British Pound to U.S. Dollar: The short trend continues with a small-scale bullish to bearish conversion around the 1.253 area. Eyes today on rebounds not exceeding this to continue downwards, with a test in the 1.254-1.255 range seen as an opposing opportunity. A stop loss above 1.257 is advisable.
U.S. Dollar to Japanese Yen: With a rebound to the 155 mark, the main stance today is observation. A continuous breakthrough above 155.5 invites further long positions, whereas a bearish response at this region suggests a short selling stance.
Australian Dollar to U.S. Dollar: Following the interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the price failed to exceed resistance after a second upward test, now showing a double top. Positioned around a previous peak and trough conversion area, the focus is on this zone's support strength. An unbroken test may lead to a second rebound; a direct break below could continue the short.
U.S. Dollar to Canadian Dollar: Short-term trading shows resistance within the 1.373-1.375 prior conversion zone, with today focused on price movements within this area. A direct breach will likely continue upward movement, with resistance above at 1.38 and further; a breakthrough followed by a dip back into this area could sustain long positions.
Crude Oil: Following a meeting of the AB=CD area, prices trended upwards with relatively weak rebound strength. The focus for today is on potential continuous bearish trends. A direct downward move should be approached with caution; waiting for a rebound testing structural positions before entering short positions is advisable.
Gold: The 2330 resistance area remains critical, with prices likely to fall if unable to break through effectively. Currently anxious at the 2310 mark, today's strategy involves waiting for a break below this area followed by a failed pullback to seize a continuing bearish trend, with support at 2280.
S&P Index: After breaking above 5140, the bullish trend continues directly. With the previous high points nearly reached, chasing long positions is advised with caution. Wait for a breakout retreat opportunity before entering long positions; resistance between 5270-5290 remains strong.
Bitcoin: Following a rebound not surpassing 65000, a fall ensued. The short trend remains intact with the 61600 area marking a prior minor level of bullish to bearish conversion, where short positions can be appropriately reduced. With the overall fluctuation unchanged, short trends can continue during the day after waiting for a rebound.
