Financial Calendar
May 15 (Wednesday) Data and Financial Events (Beijing Time)
14:45 French CPI for April, monthly rate
16:00 IEA Monthly Oil Market Report
17:00 Eurozone first quarter GDP annual rate revision
Eurozone first quarter seasonally adjusted employment growth rate
Eurozone March industrial output monthly rate
20:30 U.S. April unadjusted CPI annual rate
U.S. April adjusted CPI monthly rate
U.S. April retail sales monthly rate
U.S. April adjusted core CPI monthly rate
U.S. April unadjusted core CPI annual rate
U.S. May New York Fed manufacturing index
22:00 U.S. May NAHB housing market index
U.S. March business inventories monthly rate
22:30 U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending May 10
U.S. Cushing crude oil inventories for the week ending May 10
U.S. strategic petroleum reserves for the week ending May 10
Market Review
On Tuesday, the U.S. April PPI rose by 0.5% month-over-month, exceeding market expectations of 0.3%. Analysts suggest the surprise was due to a downward revision in March's data. The annual growth rate reached 2.2%, aligning with market forecasts. The release led to concerns about persistent inflation, which may prevent the Federal Reserve from easing policies. Traders reduced their expectations for a rate cut in September, with swap contracts indicating expectations of a 40 basis point cut by year-end. Following the unexpected U.S. PPI data, the U.S. dollar index momentarily surged to a daily high of 105.47 before paring all gains and closing at 105.00.
Focus Today
U.S. Dollar Index: The short-term price continues to hover around the 105 pivot zone, with today's U.S. CPI data attracting attention for its market impact. A break below this zone could lead to a 4H level drop to the next support at 104, while a steady rise should watch for the previous high of 106.5.
Euro to U.S. Dollar: Short-term focus is on the impact of U.S. CPI data on the market. With a minor pullback and uptrend yesterday, the short-term bullish trend continues. Resistance on the 4H level is seen at 1.085 and 1.093, with support at 1.076 and 1.07. The market awaits data guidance for future movements.
British Pound to U.S. Dollar: Short-term price is within the 1.26 pivot zone. Until an effective break, maintain a short-term watchful approach, taking cues from the EUR/USD. Resistance is focused around the 1.27-1.275 area, with support at 1.24-1.245.
U.S. Dollar to Japanese Yen: The trend continues with cautious bullish sentiment for short positions as the price nears the 157.5 resistance area. The support remains unchanged at 155-155.5, with advisable monitoring for a stable re-entry into long positions after a support test.
Australian Dollar to U.S. Dollar: Narrow oscillations continue short-term, with upper resistance between 0.664-0.667 and lower support at 0.656-0.658. Market direction awaits confirmation post-breakout for continued transactions.
U.S. Dollar to Canadian Dollar: Price is at the prior support zone of 1.36-1.363. Short-term market focus is on support durability, with rebound expectations if not effectively breached. Short-term strategy involves monitoring for short opportunities upon resistance retest.
Crude Oil: Following AB=CD completion, prices entered a fluctuation at the 77 zone, with short-term continuation for bears. On a minor level, monitor the 77-80 range for sell high and buy low opportunities, keeping the strong resistance at 81 unchanged. Future bearish actions recommended upon K reversal confirmation.
Gold: The uptrend continues with a short-term break and retest indicating bullish continuation. Short-term, watch the previous high of 2378 for resistance, with strong resistance at the 2400 mark. Consider short positions after upward trend confirmation and K reversal.
S&P Index: Following a retest of the 5200 support, the price moved upward. Short-term focus is on resistance at the 5287 peak, with support at 5200. Market direction is contingent on CPI release, with strategies revolving around sell high and buy low prior to effective breaks.
Bitcoin: Continuation within the 60000-66000 range, with the price nearing the 60000 low. Short-term strategy, influenced by U.S. data tonight, involves monitoring post-data release without breaking this range for range-bound high sell and low buy operations.
