1、Index Direction:
After a strong Thursday, anticipating index volatility for a few days post a major bullish day. Suggests focusing on thematic stocks, ignoring the index. Friday saw a small gain, but Tuesday's reversal led to two unproductive trading days. Short-term index view remains unchanged: expecting continued volatility on Wednesday with a higher probability of decline.
In the mid to long term, the bottoming area is evident. Consider continued allocation to sectors with significant declines in the past two years, such as consumer goods and new energy, while avoiding last year's high performers like media and Huawei automotive.
2、Short-term Sentiment:
Reflecting on the historical "cross-year demon" stocks of '21 (Longjin Pharma), '22 (Maiqu'er), and '23 (Yashi Optoelectronics), caution is advised as Yashi has reached a 9-board height on Tuesday, surpassing the levels of Hui Fa Food (8 boards) and Dong An Power (9 boards) from December 5th and November 23rd, respectively. Participating in short-term trading, either go for the highest (maximum board) or the lowest (first and second boards), with minimal involvement in the middle (third and fourth boards). Sector arbitrage direction: Northbound 30CM, 20CM tech and startup boards are losing appeal.
3、Hot Sectors:
Nuclear Power:
Notable companies include Shangwei, with supporting companies like Libaote, Hailu Heavy Industry, Hefei Forging Intelligent, and Xizhuang. The recent formation of a controllable nuclear fusion innovation consortium is a positive development, emphasizing nuclear fusion as the sole future energy direction.
Semiconductor/Lithography:
Dutch government partially revokes ASML's DUV immersion lithography machine export permit. Short-term adjustment expected in the semiconductor chip sector.
MR (Mixed Reality):
Huawei's MR research notes circulate online, suggesting the release of Huawei MR and AR products in 2024, fueling the AI+MR trend. Yabov Xuan is a key player, doubling in four trading days. Apple may use micro-OLED screens from Visionox, a supplier for Yabov Xuan. Other stocks with consecutive limit up include Shuangxiang, Lideng Optoelectronics, and Shikong Technology. Expectations for continued consecutive limit ups for Shuangxiang.
Military Industry:
Leading company is Baota Industry, with supporting companies such as Aerospace Power, China Defense, Aerospace Morning Light, Zhanpeng Technology, Xiangyang Bearing, and Lihang Technology. The sector is mainly influenced by the Middle East and Red Sea situations, not expected to have sustained strength.
New Energy:
After the photovoltaic surge last Thursday, caution is advised, and attention is recommended on Wednesday and Thursday for core varieties amid continuous adjustments in photovoltaics and lithium batteries.
In every bear market, a bull market follows. Securities markets always present new opportunities. As of the end of '23, the latest dividend yield for the dividend index is 4.325%, exceeding the 10-year bond yield of 2.592%. Buying good stocks for dividends yields higher returns than government bonds, so what's there to worry about!
