- The latest statement from Windward is not "the complete reopening of Hormuz" or "total clearance," but rather "controlled and unstable." As of the April 12 update, the U.S. efforts to clear mines and potential enforcement signals have added a layer of control to a maritime system previously restricted by Iran, leading to more cautious vessel behavior.
- The key increment lies at the boundaries of American actions. The U.S. Central Command announced that from April 13 at 14:00 GMT, all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports and coastal areas is under blockade, but it does not "impede" neutral vessels traveling to non-Iranian destinations through Hormuz.
- Global oil flows have begun to reallocate. Windward states that 172 crude oil tankers are currently heading to the U.S. Gulf Coast, defining this shift as a "stabilizing pricing and export anchor point" for the U.S. in the backdrop of Hormuz turbulence.
The real importance of this news is not whether the Strait of Hormuz is entirely closed, but that the strait has shifted from a model solely controlled by Iran to a dual-controlled environment of "Iranian restrictions + U.S. enforcement signals." Windward explicitly notes that the strait is currently a "controlled and unstable system," meaning it can function, but movement cannot be guaranteed or considered routine commercial practice. For trading desks, this representation is more precise than "complete closure" because it implies that logistical disruptions are not static outcomes but vary in real-time with military, insurance, and shipowner decisions.
Strait Status
According to Windward's April 12 update, 17 ships crossed Hormuz on April 11, comprising 7 inbound and 10 outbound vessels. This indicates that before Trump's announcement of the U.S. Navy beginning the blockade, the strait wasn't entirely shut down but rather experienced low traffic, non-standard routes, and selective passage. Reuters reported on April 9 that post-ceasefire, Hormuz traffic was still less than 10% of normal levels, with about 7 ships passing in 24 hours compared to the usual approximately 140.
U.S. Adds a Layer of Control
The latest statement from the U.S. Central Command has shifted market focus from "whether the strait is closed" to "which ships will be intercepted, searched, or forced to reroute." A navigational notice seen by Reuters warns that unauthorized ships entering or leaving the blockaded area risk interception, rerouting, and seizure. This effectively increases the compliance costs and war risk premiums for Hormuz, even though legal text maintains neutral navigation space. For shipowners and charterers, the issue is no longer just about whether they can travel, but whether they will face checks, misjudgments, or higher costs regarding insurance and crew safety after doing so.
Change in Vessel Behavior
According to a Reuters report on April 13, before the U.S. blockade officially took effect, only two oil tankers related to Iran left the Gulf; another Maltese-flagged VLCC initially attempted to enter the Gulf to load Iraqi Basra crude but later turned back, anchoring near the Gulf of Oman. This suggests that the market is already responding to policy uncertainty with "turning back," "waiting," and "limited movement." If this behavior expands, even if Hormuz is not "fully closed" in name, it may become more commercially frozen in effect.
Why the U.S. Gulf Coast Becomes an Anchor
The "anchor point" mentioned by Windward does not imply that the U.S. can geographically replace Hormuz; rather, it indicates that when the Middle Eastern export chain is highly unstable, global buyers are concentrating more alternate procurement, pricing, and loading activities along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Windward data shows 172 crude oil tankers are heading to the region, with a 46% increase in arrivals from Europe and a 132% increase from Asia and the Gulf. This means the U.S. is becoming a more stable node for marginal supply and price discovery.
