Regarding Gold:
Recently, the strong performance of the U.S. economy and employment has led to a slow decline in U.S. inflation. The Federal Reserve has released hawkish statements, delaying expectations of a rate cut. The market is currently adjusting its "preemptive" trades on rate cut expectations, which will put short-term pressure on gold prices.
On the other hand, if Trump is re-elected as President, his policies such as imposing a 10% tariff on all imported goods, tightening immigration policies, and extending tax cuts may make it more difficult for U.S. inflation to decrease, or even cause a rebound. If the expectation of a rate cut is further delayed, it will suppress gold prices.
Technical Analysis: On the daily chart, the price rebounded from a low position and closed with a bullish candle in the previous trading day, indicating some support from below. However, the price is still operating below the 20-day moving average, so be cautious of the risk of gold prices falling again. Intraday, watch for resistance at the $2335 level and support at the $2300 level.
Regarding Crude Oil:
Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.59 million barrels to 460.696 million barrels, and total gasoline inventories increased by 2.66 million barrels to 233.886 million barrels. This indicates that the U.S. is still in a "stockpiling" phase, which will limit short-term oil price increases.
However, in the third quarter, OPEC+ oil-producing countries continue to maintain production cuts, and summer is the traditional oil consumption season in the U.S., which provides support for rising oil prices. Additionally, some institutions predict a global oil supply gap of more than 1.3 million barrels per day in the third quarter. Coupled with ongoing geopolitical tensions, there is still an opportunity for oil prices to rise.
Technical Analysis: On the daily chart, prices continued to rise and closed with a bullish candle in the previous trading day, indicating strong oil prices recently. However, from a pattern perspective, prices have not yet effectively broken through the recent consolidation range. Be cautious of the risk of oil prices falling. Intraday, watch for resistance at the $83.27 level and support at the $81 level.
[Important Disclaimer: The above content and opinions are provided by the third-party cooperation platform Zhisheng for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors should operate based on their own risk analysis.]
