On Wednesday (August 14th), during the early Asian session, spot gold experienced minor fluctuations and is currently trading around $2463.748 per ounce. Gold prices remained stable on Tuesday, hovering near the historical highs set in July at $2464.67 per ounce, despite some profit-taking. The stability was due to U.S. producer price data bolstering hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, accompanied by a weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields; geopolitical concerns also supported gold prices. The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.4% on Tuesday, making gold more attractive to holders of other currencies, while the 10-year Treasury yield slipped to a one-week low. Tuesday's data showed that U.S. producer prices in July increased less than expected, indicating that inflation continues to ease. Traders are now looking forward to Wednesday's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July and Thursday's retail sales data. According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders see about a 54% chance of a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. In a low-interest-rate environment, gold tends to be more appealing. Despite recent profit-taking, ongoing geopolitical tensions, recent market volatility, and expectations of rate cuts continue to drive investors towards safe-haven assets. Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated on Tuesday that recent economic data has made him more confident that the Fed can achieve its goal of returning inflation to 2%, but he wants to see “more data” before being ready to support a rate cut. He said that the risks between inflation and the job market are closer to balance, but he wants to ensure that the Fed avoids cutting rates prematurely to prevent having to hike rates later if inflation reaccelerates. Nevertheless, if the economic developments unfold as he expects, rates will be lowered by the end of the year. Besides U.S. CPI data, investors should continue to monitor geopolitical news and pay attention to the New Zealand interest rate decision today.
8.14 Gold Market Trend Analysis:
On the daily chart, gold clearly exhibits a triple top pattern, indicating that each time it reaches the 2470-2477 range, it is strongly resisted and pulled back, showing a weakening momentum. Shengfu remains firm that the K-line will inevitably return to the moving average, so a pullback in the K-line is expected. The gold rebound is an opportunity to short, and the triple top around 2470 remains unchanged. While the market consensus is that gold will break historical highs, Shengfu prefers contrarian thinking, questioning what the major players would do if breaking historical highs were that easy.
From the current market perspective, the trend has not formed a clear reversal, but the doji candle breaking higher indicates an obvious short-term resistance at previous highs. Today's focus is on CPI guidance; if favorable, it may push gold further to 2500. Based on technical analysis, daily charts show obvious resistance, while the four-hour chart shows weakening at higher levels, but prices are still above the upper line. If reclaimed, it indicates that the four-hour adjustment will formally begin. One-hour charts are at mid-points, meaning cycles are not completely resonant. Therefore, await a second rebound on the hourly chart for entry points to short, and if the four-hour chart reclaims the upper line, add to shorts. The current CPI expectation is bearish; if true, the four-hour uptrend may slow down. Hence, it's prudent to prepare for both scenarios: intraday rebound shorts mainly, and follow the trend if data conforms to expectations and breaks higher.
Currently, at historical highs, Shengfu remains bearish on gold or lacks the courage to hold long positions for extended periods. The recent gold price rise is highly driven by news, and with stabilizing risk sentiments, if the CPI data meets expectations, the subsequent drop will follow the anticipated rise. Thus, it's recommended to start positioning for medium to long-term shorts. In summary, for today's gold short-term strategy, suggest shorting on rebounds and buying on retracements, focusing on resistance around 2476-2477 and support around 2442-2445.
Short Strategy: Short gold around 2473-2476, with a stop loss of 6 points, targeting 2460-2450, and further towards 2445 if broken. Long Strategy: Buy gold around 2442-2445, with a stop loss of 6 points, targeting 2455-2465, and further towards 2470 if broken.
The above content only represents personal opinions. Investment involves risk, so approach cautiously!
