On Wednesday, Russian authorities stated that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Russia's largest mercenary group, was on a plane that crashed north of Moscow. The Kremlin and the Defense Department have not issued official comments on the incident.
Prigozhin was the founder of the Wagner mercenary group and led a failed revolt against the Russian military's top brass two months ago. Media associated with Wagner (Grey Zone) praised him as a hero and patriot, suggesting he was killed in an attack by unidentified "Russian traitors."
Amid intense speculation and a lack of verifiable facts, some of Prigozhin's supporters have blamed the Russian government. This is because others who opposed Russian President Putin or his interests have also died or come close to death under mysterious circumstances, including outspoken political leaders and journalists. The Wagner group had launched an unsuccessful armed rebellion against the military's top brass in June, which angered Putin.
Regardless of who was behind the plane crash, Prigozhin's death not only results in the Wagner group losing its leadership but also removes one of the most severe threats Putin has faced since coming to power in 1999.
The International Air Transport Headquarters stated on its website that the crashed Legacy600 business jet was manufactured by Embraer. The model has only had one accident in over 20 years of service, which was due to crew error, not mechanical failure. Embraer stated that due to sanctions imposed on Russia by the West, it had not provided maintenance for this aircraft since 2019.
Flight tracking data showed that Prigozhin's plane showed no signs of trouble before a sudden steep dive in the last 30 seconds. Russia's aviation agency, Rosaviatsia, published the names of all 10 people on the crashed plane, which included Prigozhin and nearly all of Wagner's top brass, including its co-founder and commander Dmitry Utkin.
Russia's emergency services stated that the plane, flying from Moscow to St. Petersburg, crashed near the village of Kuzhenkino in the Tver region. Russian investigators have launched a criminal investigation to determine what happened. Some unnamed sources told Russian media they believe the plane was shot down by one or more surface-to-air missiles.
Abbas Gallyamov, a former speechwriter for Putin, implied that Putin, who is running for reelection next year, orchestrated the plane crash to strengthen his rule in Russia by targeting Prigozhin's plane.
Bill Browder, a businessman with many years of experience in Russia, stated that Putin would never forgive or forget those who have humiliated him, and Prigozhin's coup created opportunities for others.
At 62 years old, Prigozhin led a coup against the Russian military's top brass on June 23-24, attempting to overthrow Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. During the mutiny, Wagner fighters shot down Russian armed helicopters, causing an unspecified number of pilot deaths, which angered the military and Putin.
Unconfirmed Russian media reports stated that Prigozhin and the senior members of his mercenary group were on their way to Moscow for a meeting with Russian defense officials when the crash occurred.
The death of nearly all of Wagner's top brass in this event may cause greater turmoil within Russia in the short term, increasing pressure on Russian authorities to end the conflict with Ukraine sooner. In the long run, losing the formidable Wagner group's support could prolong the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, thereby exacerbating global concerns over energy and food supplies.
Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the energy and food supply of both countries have been a focal point in financial markets. Whether Russia cuts off energy supplies to Europe or both Russia and Ukraine reduce exports of wheat and other foodstuffs, it poses a threat to energy and food security. This keeps energy and food prices firm, threatening the efforts of major central banks worldwide to curb inflation.
