U.S. Tariff Policy Escalation Attracts Market Attention
On August 15, local time, the U.S. government announced further expansion of the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum products, with rates as high as 50%. This adjustment not only covers traditional steel and aluminum raw materials but also a large number of derivatives. Following the announcement, the black commodities futures market and the upstream and downstream of the steel industry chain are closely monitoring its potential impact.
Wider Range of Affected Product Categories
According to the announcement from the U.S. Department of Commerce, the newly added list in this round covers 407 tariff codes, including intermediates and finished products like billets, slabs, structural components, and fasteners. This means that U.S. importing companies will bear additional costs not only on raw materials but also on many downstream steel products. Industry insiders pointed out that this move will drive up the cost of materials in the U.S. manufacturing sector, potentially further weakening the international competitiveness of related industries.
Limited Impact on Direct Chinese Steel Exports
Data shows that the proportion of Chinese steel exports to the U.S. is extremely low. In 2024, China's total exports exceeded 100 million tons, with less than 500,000 tons exported to the U.S., accounting for only 0.4% of the total. Therefore, the industry generally believes that the new U.S. tariff measures will have a limited impact on direct Chinese steel exports. However, it should be noted that indirect exports via third countries like Southeast Asia may be hindered, with potential impacts reaching millions of tons in scale.
Transshipment Trade May Become a Key Variable
In recent years, the scale of Chinese steel exports to Vietnam is large, with a significant portion re-exported to the U.S. The expansion of the U.S. tariff range this time will indirectly suppress this kind of transshipment trade. Analysts expect that the annual indirect export volume of approximately 3 million tons may be affected, putting pressure on domestic demand for sheet products.
Potential Impact on Downstream Manufacturing
The tariff policy not only targets steel itself but may also affect China's exports of steel-intensive products such as construction machinery, home appliances, and new energy vehicles. These industries are highly dependent on sheet supply, and restrictions on steel exports will be transmitted to these end industry chains. According to industry estimates, in 2024, China indirectly exported nearly 14.5 million tons of steel to the United States through steel derivatives, and this figure may significantly decline if tariffs are fully implemented.
Short-term Performance of the Domestic Futures Market
On the futures market level, analysts point out that this round of tariff policies is somewhat bearish for black commodities in the short term, especially coil products which may be more suppressed. Recently, the price spread between rebar and hot coils has been at historical highs, and the market anticipates that with declining external demand, sheet prices will be under pressure, and the coil-rebar spread may narrow temporarily. However, most institutions still emphasize that the core driving force of the domestic market remains policy regulation and capacity control.
Policies and Fundamentals May Cushion the Impact
Despite increasing external pressure, industry insiders believe that the continued efforts of China's macro policies and industrial policies will partially offset the impact of tariffs. In recent phases, the bottoming of real estate and infrastructure investment, the coal-steel linkage to control production measures, and policies to support industry prosperity will all help maintain a volatile upward trend in the black commodity futures market.
Conclusion
Overall, the expansion of the U.S. steel and aluminum tariff range has limited impact on direct Chinese steel exports, but there is potential shock to transshipment trade and downstream finished product exports. In the short term, the domestic black commodity futures market may face pressure, especially sheet products. However, policy support and domestic demand expectations are likely to provide a cushion, and the black commodity sector is still expected to maintain mid-term stability.
