- After Bitcoin (BTC) retraced to a recent low of $59,100, it showed signs of a rebound from the low and is currently fluctuating around $63,600. This volatility has reignited widespread discussion in the global cryptocurrency market about whether the bottom of this cycle has been established.
- The U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) recorded a net outflow of approximately $5.8 billion over the past month. This, along with the overall institutional demand turning into net selling, has become a core concern restricting price rebounds.
- On-chain data shows that the current price is only about 9% higher than the realized price, and more than half of the holdings in circulation are in a state of paper loss. The disagreement between bulls and bears over whether there is still one last drop remains severe.
Institutional Fund Outflows Trigger Market Reassessment
According to data compiled by Bloomberg, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has experienced significant capital outflows over the past month, with a cumulative net outflow of $5.8 billion. A research report by CryptoQuant indicates that the overall demand for crypto assets from U.S. institutions has shown signs of stagnation and has recently turned into net selling. The bearish camp believes that the continuous outflow of funds reflects a deterioration in market fundamentals, making it difficult for the current price to form solid technical support in the absence of new capital inflows. Conversely, the bullish camp argues that such a scale of capital outflow is precisely a typical feature of accelerated clearing of market chips, often accompanied by the final establishment of valuation bottoms in past cycles.
On-Chain Indicators Approach Historical Sensitive Range
In terms of key on-chain data performance, the current market price of Bitcoin is only about 9% higher than its realized price. The realized price is usually considered the average holding cost of all on-chain circulating tokens at the time of their last movement and is a key indicator for assessing the overall holding cost of investors. Historically, in the vicinity of major cycle bottoms, market prices often closely approach this realized price. Analyst Vetle Lunde emphasizes that more than half of the Bitcoin holdings in circulation are already in a state of paper loss, indicating that the space for further selling and profit realization has significantly narrowed. This type of chip structure has repeatedly appeared at multiple market bottoms in the past.
Bullish Defense Logic Amid Interwoven Catalysts
Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, clearly stated in his latest report that the phase low of crypto asset prices in this cycle has already emerged. He lists the marginal easing of geopolitical tensions and the formal completion of SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) as two potential bullish catalysts for a market recovery. Kendrick believes that the release of global geopolitical pressure helps alleviate the upward pressure on international oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields. Meanwhile, as the IPO project is finally completed, the pressure from fund outflows caused by investors who chose to cash out Bitcoin holdings in advance to participate in the subscription is expected to gradually dissipate in the future.
Bottom Confirmation Still Awaits Demand Clearance
Although several key technical and on-chain indicators are approaching the bottom range, analyst Vetle Lunde also warns that before establishing a sustained trend recovery signal, Bitcoin still cannot rule out the possibility of a final shakeout due to potential uncertainties. Additionally, compared to many typical deep collapses in history, the scale of this round of selling still appears relatively insufficient. In the past 30 days, the number of Bitcoins actually realized at a loss by global investors is about 187,000, still significantly lower than the scale of selling triggered by the FTX bankruptcy event at the end of 2022. CryptoQuant researchers point out that the current price level should be viewed more as a candidate range for valuation bottoms rather than a confirmed cycle bottom. If subsequent core institutional demand rebounds less than expected, market asset pricing may face volatile reassessment.
