- Goldman Sachs' latest estimates indicate that global crude oil inventories are expected to fall below the critical threshold equivalent to 100 days of global demand by the end of May 2026. Satellite-observed visible inventories are projected to cover only 73 days of demand.
- Due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, global daily crude oil supply losses have exceeded 10 million barrels. The International Energy Agency (IEA) confirms that this event has resulted in a cumulative supply disruption of over 1 billion barrels, marking the largest energy supply disruption in history.
- Neil Chapman, Senior Vice President of ExxonMobil (XOM:US), has issued a warning that global oil inventories will approach historically low levels within the next two to three weeks. If the supply gap persists, spot crude prices may face significant upward pressure, potentially suppressing downstream demand.
Global Inventories Near 100-Day Critical Threshold
Goldman Sachs' latest global energy supply and demand model shows that as of the end of April, total global crude oil inventories remained at a level equivalent to 101 days of global demand. However, with the continued deterioration of supply chain disruptions due to geopolitical tensions, the rate of inventory depletion has accelerated significantly, and it is expected to drop to 98 days by the end of May. Particularly concerning is the situation of visible inventories, observable via satellite and open commercial channels, which are estimated to meet only 73 days of global consumption demand. This decline has triggered a supply-demand security alert in the energy market, raising widespread concerns within the industry about spot supply capabilities.
Strait of Hormuz Blockade Causes Daily Supply Gap of 10 Million Barrels
The core reason for the sharp decline in global crude oil inventories is the marginal changes in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Currently, only a minimal number of supply chain vessels can pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transport chokepoint. According to industry statistics, the substantial obstruction of this strait has led to a global daily crude oil supply loss exceeding 10 million barrels. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has clearly stated in its latest assessment that since the substantial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the global market has cumulatively lost over 1 billion barrels of oil supply. Historically, this has become the largest oil supply disruption event the global energy market has ever faced, surpassing previous energy crises in its destructive impact on supply chains.
ExxonMobil Warns of Inventory Reaching Spot Limits in Two Weeks
Faced with an increasingly tight spot market, global energy giants have also issued compliance warnings. Neil Chapman, Senior Vice President of ExxonMobil (XOM:US), stated at an industry conference in New York that the world is currently in an unprecedented low inventory environment. He emphasized that existing spot inventories could reach their physical limits within the next two to three weeks. If inventories are depleted and alternative supplies cannot be replenished in time, spot crude prices may rise sharply. Chapman noted that if this extreme inventory shortage cannot be reversed in the short term, the market pricing mechanism will face severe shocks, and high energy costs will eventually be transmitted down the industrial chain, thereby substantially suppressing global end-consumer demand.
Forward Crude Market Pricing Faces Asset Revaluation
Market analysts point out that if geopolitical conflicts cannot be alleviated in the short term, the global energy supply-demand balance sheet will undergo substantial restructuring. Against the backdrop of extremely low inventories, the price elasticity of the crude oil market will be significantly amplified, and any minor supply disturbance could trigger severe volatility in the commodity market. If core inflation rebounds as a result, the monetary policy pricing space of major global central banks may also be compressed, and market expectations for future economic growth and interest rate paths may undergo a comprehensive revision. Investors need to closely monitor the marginal changes in commercial inventories and the progress of navigation restoration in major channels over the coming weeks.
