Actually, I didn't want to say this because I understand that telling the truth can dampen someone's enthusiasm. Speaking bluntly doesn't solve people's issues and may even add to their troubles, causing them to lose confidence and patience. However, interacting with new traders daily has given me a lot of insights. Keeping it all in would make me uncomfortable and weigh on my conscience.
Why do traders have such a short lifespan in the speculative market? It's because surviving long-term in the market requires a lengthy checklist of essential qualities. For instance: understanding technical analysis, basic principles of analysis, being honest about human nature, daring to take responsibility, accepting reasonable losses, having strong resilience to setbacks, possessing considerable courage and boldness, maintaining a calm attitude, and so on.
However, even if you have these abilities, it doesn't guarantee long-term profitability in the market. Without sufficient professional experience to handle market fluctuations, real trading tests a person's comprehensive abilities, a challenge very few can overcome. Although everyone might occasionally profit due to luck, over time you'll find that the probability of survival decreases, dropping to a mere fraction of a percent after ten years or more.
The conditions for long-term survival must be met perfectly. When these complex essential conditions come together in a single person, it's a rare occurrence requiring immense talent, persistent effort, and a great deal of luck. Ordinary effort doesn't meet these basic requirements; this is the harsh reality. Every successful trader is a favored one of fortune – this is the truth the market won't tell you! As I write this, an inner voice whispers: "The truth about the market should not be spoken, should not be spoken."
Market fluctuations need energy, supplied by the participants. However, most people's role is to exhaust themselves by providing the market with the necessary nutrients for these fluctuations, while only a few big players reap the benefits. Why can a few people make money? We know that candlestick patterns are as simple as bullish and bearish, and trading is as simple as buying and selling. Yet, behind this simplicity lies endless complexity, making people feel lost.
What the simple buying and selling disguise are the intricate details of market movements and trading mechanisms, especially under the simultaneous effects of market timeliness and leverage. This makes survival much harder compared to the stock market. As mentioned earlier, long-term survival in the market requires many essential conditions that must all be met precisely.
The rarity of these stringent essential conditions makes long-term survivors in the market lucky individuals in a low-probability environment. Most people treat trading lightly, thinking they are naturally adept and jumping into it without proper preparation, resulting in their quick elimination. People tend to prioritize making money over surviving in the market, which is understandable. The problem lies in their hasty actions without adequate capability, neglecting the importance of experience accumulation before maturity.
Regardless of origin, status, or age, traders entering the market prematurely and hoping for quick profits cause significant losses! The quickest to perish are those who think highly of themselves and frequently engage in heavy trading. Most people get exhausted in the maze because they can't adapt to the environment.
Only after experiencing the markets do you realize that there are only narrow spaces where traders can survive safely. What is a suitable way for us to survive? You have to seize the opportunities of strong one-sided trends. People habitually chase daily fluctuations because of their low tolerance. Thus, it is often said that "volatility is king!" Technical analysis excels in defining trends during significant fluctuations, but when the trend is erratic, finding a pattern based on technicals is challenging, making it difficult even for experts to profit.
There are many misconceptions in the trading world. For instance, some expect traders to be both skillful in trading and excellent in forecasting, which is an unrealistic and excessive demand. No one can master everything. Human ability to learn and grasp things is finite, and mastering everything within one’s lifetime is impossible. Forecasting is a specialized field that is not easy to enter or delve into deeply.
I estimate that there are less than a hundred people nationwide who are truly good at market forecasting. Even those with considerable skills in market analysis require substantial time to make well-reasoned judgments. People often expect daily commentary and insights, and those writing these reviews have to cater to this demand. Opportunities do not arise daily or frequently; mastering the essence of trading requires relentless effort in a specific field to form a viable trading model, adhering to consistent trading principles—rather than learning to forecast first. Even if you're shown this shortcut, mastering this ability requires paying a considerable price. If you’re not prepared for a transformative journey, don’t venture into trading.
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