As the US and Iran attempt to turn a two-week ceasefire arrangement into a more long-term framework, Israel is simultaneously advancing a "buffer zone" strategy in Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon. This indicates that Israel's security approach is shifting from "repelling attacks" to "long-term preemptive suppression." Reuters, citing six Israeli military and defense officials, reports that this adjustment stems from the ongoing impact of the October 7, 2023 attacks and reflects Israel's assessment that regional hostile forces are "difficult to be completely eradicated."
Lebanese Buffer Zone
In the Lebanese direction, the Israeli military has advanced ground operations since Hezbollah joined the conflict in early March, aiming to clear a buffer zone up to the Litani River, covering approximately 8% of Lebanon's territory. Reuters states that Israel has requested hundreds of thousands of residents to move north and has begun dismantling houses deemed linked to Hezbollah in some Shia villages. An Israeli senior officer stated the goal is to clear a 5 to 10-kilometer area beyond the border to protect northern Israeli communities from rocket and anti-tank fire threats. Israeli Defense Minister Katz openly declared that border village residences will be handled according to the Gaza Rafah and Khan Yunis model.
Permanent War Logic
The strategy reflects deeper skepticism within Israeli leadership about the feasibility of a "permanent peace agreement." Reuters quotes Carnegie Endowment for International Peace scholar Brown, stating Israel is acknowledging its position in an "eternal war," where adversaries can only be deterred and dispersed, rather than completely eliminated. On March 31, Netanyahu publicly stated that Israel has established "security belts" beyond the borders, including over half of Gaza's land, areas in Syria from Mount Hermon to the Yarmouk River, and a "vast buffer zone" within Lebanon. However, the buffer zone plan has not yet been formally submitted for cabinet review.
Ceasefire and Risks
The issue lies in the fact that the US-Iran ceasefire does not cover the front lines between Israel and Hezbollah. Reuters reported on April 9 that Netanyahu has sought to engage in direct negotiations with Lebanon urgently, focusing on disarming Hezbollah rather than achieving a comprehensive ceasefire first. The international community is concerned that the continuous Israeli military strikes on Lebanon are undermining the credibility of the US-Iran ceasefire. For the market, this implies that even as Tehran and Washington enter negotiation tracks, Middle East geopolitical risks and energy premiums might not rapidly dissipate.
