The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper rose by 1.1% to $13,550.50 per ton, reaching its highest level since January 29. The weekly gain is expected to be 5.5%, marking the largest weekly increase in nearly three months.
- The main copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) simultaneously increased by 1.5%, reaching 104,550 yuan per ton, equivalent to $15,363.59. The weekly gain is approximately 2.9%, with fundamentals and macro expectations resonating.
- Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX:US) has delayed the full resumption of production at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine to early 2028. This, combined with structural demand for power equipment driven by the construction of artificial intelligence data centers, further solidifies the pricing logic of tightening future supply.
Immediate Volume and Price Characteristics
The global copper market is currently at the intersection of capital flows and fundamental expectations. After breaking through the $13,500 mark, LME copper shows strong upward momentum. From the transaction structure perspective, the temporary easing of Middle East tensions between the US and Iran has prompted funds that previously avoided geopolitical risks to return to the base metals market. Meanwhile, SHFE copper remains above 100,000 yuan, reflecting Asian session funds' recognition of the upward shift in the long-term copper price center. If the spot premium stabilizes, the market's bullish structure may be further consolidated.
Geopolitical Marginal Changes and Macro Pricing
The evolution of the Middle East situation has always been an important source of risk premium in the recent commodity market. As Iran's official statements indicate a normalization of the situation and the US signals no intention to escalate, the macro trading theme quickly shifts from a risk-averse mode back to economic fundamentals logic. Capital.com analyst Kyle Rodda points out that although geopolitical disturbances have caused short-term volatility, the core pricing anchor of the current market has substantially shifted to the expectation of tightening copper supply. This macro sentiment recovery provides a solid support base for copper prices, which are seen as an economic barometer.
Cross-Commodity Arbitrage and Base Metal Performance
Against the backdrop of strong copper price increases, other base metals on the LME and SHFE show distinct divergence, reflecting differences in the supply-demand cycles of each commodity. LME aluminum slightly rose by 0.3%, while LME nickel, which previously hit a two-year high, slightly retreated by 0.4%. Lead, tin, and zinc all declined by 0.7% to 0.8%. On the domestic front, SHFE nickel significantly retreated by 1.9%, while tin and zinc recorded gains of 1.1% and 0.4%, respectively. This structural divergence indicates that current funds are more focused on copper, which has a clear logic of computational infrastructure expansion, rather than engaging in indiscriminate sector-wide rallies.
