On January 19th, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that by 2025, China's GDP is expected to reach 14,018.79 billion yuan, an increase of 5.0% year-on-year, marking a new milestone with the total economic volume surpassing 14 trillion yuan. Officials emphasized at the press conference that the "advancing towards innovation and quality" characteristic has been more prominent over the past year, as new quality productivity transitions from concept to implementation.
Dissecting Growth: How the 5% Was Achieved
From a quarterly perspective, the year-on-year GDP growth rates for 2025 are as follows: first quarter at 5.4%, second quarter at 5.2%, third quarter at 4.8%, and fourth quarter at 4.5%, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.2% in the fourth quarter. Several interviewed scholars believe that the strong start at the beginning of the year is crucial for meeting the annual target, while the resilience of manufacturing and foreign trade plays a significant role in offsetting domestic demand fluctuations.
Manufacturing Strengthened: Support from Equipment and High-Tech Manufacturing
The National Bureau of Statistics disclosed that by 2025, the added value of large-scale equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increased to account for 36.8% and 17.1% respectively of the industrial added value of large enterprises. In terms of output, civil drones and industrial robots saw year-on-year increases of 37.3% and 28%, respectively. Additionally, industrial internet applications have expanded to 41 major industrial categories, indicating that "high-end manufacturing + digital transformation" is collectively uplifting industrial prosperity.
AI Spillover Effects Expand: Rising Production of Memory Chips and Servers
Amid the accelerated penetration of "AI+", statistical departments have noted that the expansion of AI applications has led to respective increases in the production of memory chips and servers by 22.8% and 12.6%. This signifies that AI impacts not only the software and application layers but also propagates demand up the chain to hardware and data infrastructure.
Burgeoning Low-Altitude Economy: What's Behind the Surge in Drone Production
Echoing the "high surge in drone production," the low-altitude economy is being identified as a promising field in several public reports. Predictions quoted from Xinhua News Agency and others suggest that by 2025, China's low-altitude economic market could reach approximately 1.5 trillion yuan, and possibly exceed 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035. With the promotion of policy and the expansion of application scenarios, this sector could see new investments and order increments across equipment manufacturing, operational services, and regulatory platforms.
Employment Signals: New Tracks "Need More People" and "Are More Expensive"
The shift in growth momentum is also reflected in employment. Reports compile that recruitment and salaries in areas such as artificial intelligence, chip research, biomedicine, smart driving, and big data are simultaneously strengthening. In AI, for instance, recruitment platform data show a clear rise in demand for AI engineers, with faster growth in specialized positions like algorithms, and a rise in related salary ranges, reflecting a still tight short-term talent supply.
Overall, behind the "5% growth" in 2025, the structural changes are more worthy of market tracking: new growth drivers like equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, AI hardware chains, and low-altitude economy are spreading across production, investment, and employment sectors. Moving forward, the pace of related industrial policies and major project advancements will be important clues for observing growth resilience.
