Exchange Rate Performance: Onshore and Offshore Markets Strengthen Together
On Monday (January 19th), the onshore RMB against the US dollar continued to strengthen, reaching 6.9629 during the session, marking a new high since May 2023. At the same time, the offshore RMB also gained momentum, breaking through the 6.96 level, indicating a more synchronized strengthening pace in both markets.
From a trading structure perspective, simultaneous upward movement in onshore and offshore markets often signifies improvement in both "sentiment and funds": On one hand, the market's pricing of macroeconomic data and policy expectations is more optimistic; on the other hand, cross-border related settlement and hedging demands may be strengthening in the short term.
Data Support: 5% GDP Growth Strengthens "Fundamental Base"
The release of macroeconomic data on the same day became an important catalyst. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's GDP will reach 1,401,879 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% at constant prices. This combination of "total volume + growth rate" typically directly influences market reassessment of economic resilience, foreign trade, and corporate profitability, thereby improving exchange rate risk appetite.
From a detailed perspective, the annual increase in total import and export volume, with exports maintaining a rapid growth rate, is often interpreted by the market as a source of support for foreign exchange supply; coupled with growth in services and consumption-related indicators, the macro narrative of the RMB more easily shifts from "pressure" to "controllable".
Institutional Perspective: Weaker Dollar Combined with Pre-Holiday Seasonality Boosts Short-Term Momentum
Regarding the recent appreciation logic, foreign institutions' explanation leans more towards a "external factors + seasonality" combination: the weaker US dollar index provides a passive boost, while common pre-and post-Chinese New Year export inflows, corporate settlement, and consumption activities may amplify favorable factors for the RMB in the short term.
Additionally, capital "reflow" is also providing supplementary clues. Reports from foreign media indicate that driven by appreciation expectations and seasonal demand, businesses and investors are increasing the conversion of foreign currency back to RMB, with some data even showing a significant increase at year-end.
Future Focus: Can Volatility Converge? Two Key Aspects to Watch
In the short term, the market usually focuses on two types of signals: the first is the alignment between the central RMB parity rate and onshore transactions (whether "steady strengthening" signals continue to be released); the second is whether the intensity of settlement can be sustained (whether export inflows, corporate hedging, and capital flows continue).
It is important to note that as the exchange rate approaches key psychological levels, policymakers often emphasize "avoiding unilateral expectations". In previous phases of RMB strengthening, there have been discussions by authorities and media to "cool down" trading, indicating two-way fluctuations may still return with external policy changes and US dollar fluctuations.
