Multiple media outlets, citing informed sources, report that Venezuela is planning to restart a larger scale of dollar supply. This involves selling dollars to business clients through the banking system to stabilize the bolivar exchange rate, which has been fluctuating more due to external shocks.
Sales Movement Emerging: Banks Inquiry to Enterprises, Still Unsettled
Reports indicate that banks in Caracas have started contacting business clients this week, offering an increased supply of dollars—overseen by the government—for the first time since mid-December. They have begun collecting bids, but as of the time reported, funds have not yet been disbursed.
Background: Oil Export Blockage Cuts Off Forex Sources, Bolivar Volatility
The spike in market volatility primarily stems from a sudden drop in foreign exchange supply. The report notes that after U.S. military forces blocked oil exports, the inflow of dollars was reduced, depriving the government of its most crucial foreign exchange revenue, causing significant swings in the bolivar.
Reuters further disclosed that restricted exports forced PDVSA to increase both offshore and onshore inventories and slow down shipments, leading to a noticeable decline in shipments from late last year to early this year.
Temporary Stability in Parallel Market: Rates Below "500" But Sentiment Fragile
In terms of short-term pricing, the bolivar rates in parallel trades once fell below 500 bolivars per dollar, indicating a calming of panic.
However, following the arrest of Nicolás Maduro by the U.S., the bolivar suffered a steep devaluation of more than 20%, plummeting towards the 800 level, significantly raising concerns over a potential currency crisis.
Funding Source: Reuters Reports About $300 Million Proposed via Private Banks
The scale and source of the dollar sales remain the biggest questions in the market. The original report did not specify the exact amount or source of the supply.
However, Reuters reports that authorities have informed four local banks that approximately $300 million in oil proceeds (about $75 million each) will be allocated for dollar sales to enterprises, related to an arrangement involving "accounts/trusts set up in Qatar" for oil funds.
Market Impact: Short-Term Relief Expected, Crucial Factors Include Pace and Sustainability
If the dollar sales proceed as planned, they could help improve the availability of foreign exchange for business imports and payments in the short term, easing tension between official and unofficial exchange rates.
However, the ability to sustain this depends on the continuity of oil funds repatriation and consistent policy execution—particularly in the highly uncertain environment of oil exports and sanctions/control.
