Due to the significant overnight decline in international oil prices, petroleum stocks have fallen across the board today. As of press time, PetroChina (00857.HK) dropped by 5.45%, China National Offshore Oil Corp (00883.HK) decreased by 5.32%, Sinopec (00386.HK) fell by 4.99%, and China Oilfield Services (02883.HK) declined by 3.75%.
On September 10, Brent crude oil futures plunged by 3.69%, closing at $69.19 per barrel, the lowest since December 2021. As of press time, Brent crude oil futures slightly rebounded to $69.56, up by 0.53%.
At the same time, OPEC released its latest report, once again lowering its forecast for global oil demand growth. According to the report, global oil demand is expected to grow by 2.03 million barrels per day in 2023 and increase to 1.74 million barrels per day in 2024, both below previous forecasts. This change has sparked market concerns about weak oil demand in the future.
Additionally, speculators' net long positions in crude oil have fallen to historical lows, indicating that capital flows are also affecting the downward trend in oil prices.
In response to the declining oil prices, several institutions have expressed their views. Goldman Sachs believes that oil supply may gradually shift from the current tight situation to a surplus, driving oil prices lower. Morgan Stanley predicts that the crude oil market may return to supply-demand balance by the end of 2024 and experience a surplus in 2025. Citibank forecasts that oil prices may drop to $60 per barrel by 2025 but notes that OPEC+ production delays and geopolitical factors may support oil prices at $70–$72 in the short term.
Currently, the weak oil prices have garnered widespread attention in the market, and the future trend remains highly uncertain.
