汇讯摘要：
On Tuesday (June 11), due to strong recent U.S. economic data, the Dollar Index hit a four-week high, reaching a peak of 105.46 and closing up by 0.15% at 105.26. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.4050%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, most sensitive to Federal Reserve policy rates, closed at 4.8380%.
On Tuesday (June 11), gold prices rebounded after bottoming out as investors awaited key U.S. inflation data and the Federal Reserve's policy statement to find clues about when the Fed might start cutting interest rates. Falling U.S. Treasury yields and concerns about geopolitical situations continued to provide some support to gold prices.
As the market weighed the impact of oil demand and supply increases, WTI crude ultimately fell slightly by 0.10% to $78.12 per barrel on Tuesday (June 11), while Brent crude rose by 0.23% to $82.09 per barrel on Tuesday (June 11).
Data and news released the previous day:
Due to political situations in Europe leading the Euro to continue weakening, the dollar rose against the Euro and the Swiss Franc on the 11th, but fell against the British Pound, the Yen, the Swedish Krona, and the Canadian Dollar. The Dollar Index rose in the overnight market, with gains expanding in the morning and contracting significantly afterward, but still ended the day higher. The Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, rose by 0.08%, closing at 105.231 in the foreign exchange market.
Forex broker Monex USA stated on the morning of the 11th that the dollar continued to consolidate the previous day's gains and continued to rise as the Federal Reserve began a two-day monetary policy meeting that morning.
Monex USA mentioned that the Euro continued to fall against the dollar. Rumors about French President Macron considering resignation caused French government bonds to continue declining, widening the yield spread with German 7-year government bonds to the highest level since last October. Although Macron denied this, his decision to call early elections has caused concerns about a potential divided government in France across the European continent.
Senior Forex Analyst Jerry Chen said that the Dollar Index continued its rebound momentum and broke through the 105 level. Last Friday's non-farm payrolls added 272,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected 185,000, with a strong job market potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, with less than a 50% chance of a rate cut in September.
Jerry Chen stated that the dollar's rise on the 10th was mainly "thanks to" the Euro, which fell for two consecutive days to close at 1.0765, the lowest in a month. French President Macron's decision to dissolve the National Assembly and call parliamentary elections in July, following his loss in the European Parliament elections, caused political and market turmoil.
The European capital markets experienced significant turbulence due to the European Parliament election results. Analysts noted that increased political instability in the European Union had a much larger impact on the capital markets than the European Central Bank's first rate cut in nearly five years, suggesting that the Euro might face mid-term downward pressure.
The analysis team from Denmark's Saxo Bank suggested that French President Macron's call for early elections after a severe defeat could lead to more political instability and further increase deficit risks. The recent downgrade of France's sovereign credit rating by S&P underscored this point.
On May 31, international credit rating agency Standard & Poor's announced a downgrade of France's sovereign credit rating, mainly because the French government's budget deficit over the next three years is expected to be higher than previously forecasted, with general government debt projected to reach 112.1% of GDP by 2027, nearly three percentage points higher than in 2023. According to market reactions, the yield on France's 10-year government bonds surged by 12 basis points on Monday and rose again by 11 basis points on Tuesday, despite a notable decline in U.S. and German government bond yields, widening the yield spread with German bonds.
Analysts at investment bank Barclays remain optimistic, stating that despite France's early elections "shaking up the market," centrist groups still hold the majority in the European Parliament, so the National Rally (RN) party has a long way to go to achieve an absolute majority in France.
Carsten Brzeski, Head of Macro Research at ING, believes that the rightward shift of major countries could lead to more lenient fiscal policies at the national level, which might bring uncertainties to financial markets. Further integration measures within the EU might be stalled, and the risk of a new debt crisis is growing.
Jörg Krämer, Chief Economist at Commerzbank, also believes that the Euro is under pressure. He stated that if traditional pro-EU parties in France find it increasingly difficult to convince voters, it will fundamentally weaken the EU and the Euro.
Saxo Bank anticipates that the mid-term risk for the Euro remains high, with the potential for the Euro to fall towards 1.0500 against the dollar. In early Asian trading on Tuesday (June 12), spot gold saw narrow fluctuations, trading near $2,314.39 per ounce. Gold prices rebounded after bottoming out on Tuesday as investors awaited key U.S. inflation data and the Federal Reserve's policy statement to find clues about when the Fed might start cutting interest rates. Falling U.S. Treasury yields and concerns about geopolitical situations continued to provide some support to gold prices.
City Index Senior Analyst Matt Simpson commented, "I suspect that after a strong employment report, the Federal Reserve will be cautious, as this could prevent them from sending the interest rate cut signal for September that traders are eagerly waiting for. In the face of rising yields and the dollar, gold might take another one or two hits."
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May will be released on Wednesday, which will be the next significant data influencing Federal Reserve expectations. The Fed will also conclude its two-day meeting on the same day. Later on Wednesday, the Fed will issue a policy statement and provide economic forecasts.
Daily FX Forex Analyst Richard Snow told traders that it is widely expected that the so-called "super core" inflation, i.e., service sector inflation minus housing inflation, will keep the year-on-year increase for the past two months at 5.3%, which could mean the Federal Reserve has little room to cut rates.
BNP Paribas Analyst Andy Schneider stated, "We expect the core CPI for May in the U.S. to rise by 0.3% for the second consecutive month, further indicating that inflation is pulling back from the consecutive highs of the first quarter." The company noted in a report that housing inflation fell to its lowest level since December 2021, expected to drag down the overall level. If inflation falls below expectations, this could pave the way for rate cuts before the end of the year.
Dollar Index Technical Analysis:
The Dollar Index encountered resistance below 105.50 on Tuesday, with support above 105.05, indicating that after a short-term rise, the dollar may maintain a downward trend. If the Dollar Index encounters resistance below 105.45 today, the subsequent downward targets will be between 105.05 and 104.90. Today's short-term resistance for the Dollar Index is between 105.40 and 105.45, with major short-term resistance between 105.60 and 105.65. Today's short-term support is between 105.05 and 105.10, with major short-term support between 104.90 and 104.95.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis:
EUR/USD found support above 1.0720 on Tuesday and faced resistance below 1.0775, indicating that after a short-term decline, there might be an upward trend. If EUR/USD stabilizes above 1.0715 today, the subsequent upward targets will be between 1.0775 and 1.0800. Today's short-term resistance for EUR/USD is between 1.0770 and 1.0775, with major short-term resistance between 1.0795 and 1.0800. Today's short-term support is between 1.0715 and 1.0720, with major short-term support between 1.0690 and 1.0695.
Gold Technical Analysis:
Gold found support above 2297.00 on Tuesday and faced resistance below 2320.00, indicating that after a short-term decline, there might be an upward trend. If gold stabilizes above 2300.00 today, the subsequent upward targets will be between 2324.00 and 2333.00. Today's short-term resistance for gold is between 2323.00 and 2324.00, with major short-term resistance between 2332.00 and 2333.00. Today's short-term support is between 2310.00 and 2311.00, with major short-term support between 2300.00 and 2301.00.
