汇讯摘要：
On Tuesday (June 25), due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and stable housing market data from the US, it indicated that the Federal Reserve would not rush into initiating a rate cut cycle. The US Dollar Index rose, peaking at an intraday high of 105.75 before retracing some gains, eventually closing up 0.13% at 105.55. The 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.252%, while the more policy-sensitive 2-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.753%. Notably, the inversion depth between the two deepened to 50 basis points.
Gold prices fell 0.63% on Tuesday (June 25), hitting a one-week low of $2315.58 during the session and closing at $2319.36 per ounce. Hawkish remarks by Fed Governor Bowman helped boost the dollar and put pressure on gold prices. Additionally, Israel’s inclination to end the conflict with Hezbollah through diplomatic means also dampened safe-haven demand.
On Tuesday (June 25), weak US consumer confidence data heightened market concerns about the US economic outlook, and the lackluster summer driving season saw both WTI and Brent crude oil fall by over 1% during the day. WTI crude fell 1.26%, closing at $80.52 per barrel, while Brent crude fell 1.36%, closing at $84.10 per barrel.
Recent Data and Announcements:
Due to hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials and the robust US data released on the same day, the dollar strengthened against a basket of currencies except for the pound. The Dollar Index rose overnight, expanded in the morning, and partially retracted by the close, but still ended higher. The index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, gained 0.13% to close at 105.608 in the forex market.
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman reiterated earlier in the day during an event in London that it is not yet the appropriate time for the Fed to start cutting rates. She added that if the inflation rate does not come down, she remains open to further rate hikes.
Bowman expects that the Fed will not cut rates this year. Given the risks and uncertainties facing the economic outlook, she intends to be cautious when considering future changes to monetary policy stances.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook stated at noon on the 25th that considering the significant progress made in fighting inflation and the gradual cooling of the job market, cutting rates would be appropriate at some point. However, Cook did not specify when it would be suitable to cut rates.
Jayati Bharadwaj, a global forex strategist at TD Securities, noted that given the overall strength of data this year, Fed officials are very reluctant to over-interpret any single weak data point.
Bharadwaj added that given the uncertainty surrounding the US inflation outlook, which is higher than in other parts of the world, Fed officials are sounding non-committal regarding specific policy directions and remain highly data-dependent.
Earlier in the morning, data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago showed that the National Activity Index for May was 0.18, better than the market expectation of -0.4 and the revised -0.26 for April.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index released earlier in the morning showed that the adjusted home price index for 20 major cities in the US for April 2024 rose 0.4% month-on-month, up from the 0.3% increase in March.
Data released earlier that morning by the Federal Housing Finance Agency also showed that the US home price index for April 2024 rose by 0.2% month-on-month, below the market expectation of 0.3%. The monthly increase for March was revised to zero from 0.1%.
However, data released earlier that morning by the Conference Board showed that the US consumer confidence index for June was 100.4, higher than the market expectation of 100, while the May figure was revised down to 101.3 from 102.
In early Asian trading on Wednesday (June 25), spot gold was oscillating narrowly and was last trading near $2318.82 per ounce. Gold prices fell 0.63% on Tuesday, hitting a one-week low of $2315.58 during the session and closing at $2319.36 per ounce. Hawkish remarks by Fed Governor Bowman helped boost the dollar and put pressure on gold prices. Additionally, Israel’s inclination to end the conflict with Hezbollah through diplomatic means also dampened safe-haven demand.
Investors are awaiting the US inflation data to be released later this week, which might provide clues about the timing of potential Fed rate cuts this year.
Senior Commodity Strategist Ryan McKay at TD Securities stated: "Central banks still have strong physical demand, and Asia also has such demand... The ultimate expectation is that the Fed will cut rates, and investors are very reluctant to short gold."
Data from the World Gold Council (WGC) showed that exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by global gold saw inflows of $212 million, or 2.1 tons of gold, last week.
Supported by hopes of Fed rate cuts and significant gold purchases by central banks amid geopolitical tensions, non-yielding gold reached a record high of $2449.89 on May 20 and has risen 12% year-to-date.
This week, traders will focus on Thursday’s US Q1 GDP data and Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index report.
Technical Analysis of the Dollar Index:
The dollar index encountered resistance below 105.80 on Tuesday, finding support above 105.35, signaling that after a short-term rally, the dollar could maintain a downward trajectory. If the dollar index faces resistance below 105.80 today, subsequent targets for a decline could fall between 105.35 and 105.15. The dollar index’s short-term resistance today is between 105.75 and 105.80, and the critical resistance is between 105.95 and 106.00. Today’s short-term support for the dollar index is between 105.35 and 105.40, with critical support between 105.15 and 105.20.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD:
EUR/USD fell on Tuesday, finding support above 1.0690 and encountering resistance below 1.0745, indicating that after a short-term decline, EUR/USD could maintain an upward trend. If EUR/USD stabilizes above 1.0690 today, subsequent targets for a rise could fall between 1.0745 and 1.0770. The short-term resistance of EUR/USD today is between 1.0740 and 1.0745, with critical resistance between 1.0765 and 1.0770. Today’s short-term support for EUR/USD is between 1.0690 and 1.0695, with critical support between 1.0660 and 1.0665.
Technical Analysis of Gold:
Gold fell on Tuesday, finding support above 2315.00 and encountering resistance below 2338.00, indicating that after a short-term decline, gold could maintain an upward trend. If gold stabilizes above 2310.00 today, subsequent targets for a rise could fall between 2333.00 and 2346.00. The short-term resistance of gold today is between 2332.00 and 2333.00, with critical resistance between 2345.00 and 2346.00. Today’s short-term support for gold is between 2310.00 and 2311.00, with critical support between 2302.00 and 2303.00.
Technical Analysis of the Dollar Index:
The dollar index encountered resistance below 105.80 on Tuesday, finding support above 105.35, signaling that after a short-term rally, the dollar could maintain a downward trajectory. If the dollar index faces resistance below 105.80 today, subsequent targets for a decline could fall between 105.35 and 105.15. The dollar index’s short-term resistance today is between 105.75 and 105.80, and the critical resistance is between 105.95 and 106.00. Today’s short-term support for the dollar index is between 105.35 and 105.40, with critical support between 105.15 and 105.20.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD:
EUR/USD fell on Tuesday, finding support above 1.0690 and encountering resistance below 1.0745, indicating that after a short-term decline, EUR/USD could maintain an upward trend. If EUR/USD stabilizes above 1.0690 today, subsequent targets for a rise could fall between 1.0745 and 1.0770. The short-term resistance of EUR/USD today is between 1.0740 and 1.0745, with critical resistance between 1.0765 and 1.0770. Today’s short-term support for EUR/USD is between 1.0690 and 1.0695, with critical support between 1.0660 and 1.0665.
Technical Analysis of Gold:
Gold fell on Tuesday, finding support above 2315.00 and encountering resistance below 2338.00, indicating that after a short-term decline, gold could maintain an upward trend. If gold stabilizes above 2310.00 today, subsequent targets for a rise could fall between 2333.00 and 2346.00. The short-term resistance of gold today is between 2332.00 and 2333.00, with critical resistance between 2345.00 and 2346.00. Today’s short-term support for gold is between 2310.00 and 2311.00, with critical support between 2302.00 and 2303.00.
CWG Market Forecast:
Today, it is advisable to short the dollar on rallies, place stop-losses immediately, and take profit if it gains more than 30 points. Exit all pending orders before the US market opens. This strategy is suitable for margin trading, and spot trading can use it as a reference.
Dollar Index: Sell at the upper limit of the 105.80---105.35 range, implement a stop-loss 20 points above a valid breakout, and aim for the lower limit of the range.
EUR/USD: Buy at the lower limit of the 1.0745---1.0690 range, implement a stop-loss 30 points above a valid breakout, and aim for the upper limit of the range.
GBP/USD: Buy at the lower limit of the 1.2710---1.2675 range, implement a stop-loss 30 points above a valid breakout, and aim for the upper limit of the range.
USD/CHF: Sell at the upper limit of the 0.8960---0.8920 range, implement a stop-loss 30 points above a valid breakout, and aim for the lower limit of the range.
USD/JPY: Sell at the upper limit of the 159.90---159.00 range, implement a stop-loss 30 points above a valid breakout, and aim for the lower limit of the range.
AUD/USD: Buy at the lower limit of the 0.6670---0.6630 range, implement a stop-loss 30 points above a valid breakout, and aim for the upper limit of the range.
USD/CAD: Sell at the upper limit of the 1.3680---1.3630 range, implement a stop-loss 30 points above a valid breakout, and aim for the lower limit of the range.
Gold: Buy at the lower limit of the 2333.00---2310.00 range, implement a stop-loss 10 dollars above a valid breakout, and aim for the upper limit of the range.
