Gold:
The European Central Bank announced a 25 basis point rate cut at this month's meeting. After the meeting, ECB officials generally indicated that they were not in a hurry to cut rates further, and future monetary policy would depend on economic data.
Yesterday (June 19), ECB Governing Council member and Portuguese central bank governor Mario Centeno stated that the rate cycle would continue to evolve. If inflation is favorable, rates will come down, and current inflation is contributing to this. Ideally, rates will not return to zero but will approach 2%.
Overall, the ECB's stance has shifted, and further rate cuts are likely. The Federal Reserve may also take action in the near future.
Technical analysis: Due to a U.S. holiday, trading closed early yesterday, and gold had a smaller intraday range. Over the past two weeks, gold has fluctuated between $2295 and $2341. Caution is needed for a breakout. A breakthrough above $2341 could target $2360, while a drop below $2300 could aim for $2280.
Crude Oil:
The conflict in the Middle East may escalate. The Israel Defense Forces have approved military action against Lebanon and decided to continue reinforcing their state of readiness. Following Israel's attack on Gaza, daily exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah on the Lebanon border have forced around 100,000 people to leave their homes in southern Lebanon, with about 80,000 residents in northern Israel in a similar situation.
OPEC maintains optimistic forecasts for strong global oil demand growth this year and next, expecting increases of 2.25 million barrels per day and 1.85 million barrels per day respectively, while hinting at further potential economic growth.
Technical analysis: Crude oil has seen a significant surge in recent weeks with a strong bullish trend, successfully breaking through May's fluctuating range of $77-$80. The likelihood of continuing this upward trend remains high. Intraday support is focused at $80.60, with an upward target of $82.50.
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