Out of the 21 economists surveyed, 12 predict that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep interest rates unchanged at 5.5% this Wednesday.
However, further tensions in the Middle East and rising geopolitical risks may exert selling pressure on high-risk assets like the New Zealand dollar, limiting its appreciation against the U.S. dollar.
Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday, seeking new market catalysts. Meanwhile, the U.S. will release a series of significant economic data this week, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday, Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, and retail sales data on Thursday, which could all significantly impact the movement of the New Zealand dollar against the U.S. dollar.
Market analyst Lallalit Srijandorn pointed out that from a daily chart perspective, the New Zealand dollar against the U.S. dollar remains in a bearish trend, with the exchange rate still below the key 100-day moving average. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering in the neutral zone, close to the 50 midpoint, suggesting that the exchange rate may experience a period of consolidation before making a clear move.
In a bullish scenario, the primary resistance level for the New Zealand dollar against the U.S. dollar is around 0.6050, which is the 100-day moving average. If this level is breached, it could push the exchange rate further up towards 0.6080, near the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands. Another notable resistance level is 0.6134, the high point from July 9.
If sellers regain control of the market, the New Zealand dollar against the U.S. dollar could fall back to 0.5912, the low point from August 6. If the exchange rate continues to stay below this level, it could further drop to 0.5856, the low point from July 29 and the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands.
As of 9:55 AM Beijing time on August 12, the New Zealand dollar against the U.S. dollar was quoted at 0.6010/12.
