Data Release Obstructed: White House Warns of Permanent Absence of Key Reports
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Wednesday that due to the government shutdown, the U.S. October non-farm payroll report and consumer price index (CPI) report might be permanently absent. She noted that the shutdown of agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has paralyzed the statistical system, making some data potentially irrecoverable.
This situation is unprecedented in American history. If these two reports cannot be published, the Federal Reserve, investment institutions, and international markets will lose key gauges of inflation and employment. This means that during the upcoming December policy meeting, the Fed may have to make critical interest rate decisions in an "information vacuum."
Bureau of Labor Statistics Shutdown Leaves Data Gaps Hard to Fill
Since the government shutdown, the BLS has completely halted data collection, processing, and publication. The agency usually calculates the non-farm payroll and unemployment rate through business and household surveys, respectively. However, since the household survey relies on phone interviews that must be completed within a specific timeframe, the possibility of retrospective data collection is extremely low.
Analysts point out that while business data can be retrospectively corrected, the timeliness of household surveys means October data is nearly impossible to reconstruct. Professor Nicolas Ramirez from the University of Pennsylvania Wharton School stated: "The core of the unemployment survey is time sensitivity; once the sampling period is missed, the subsequent statistics are hardly comparable after resuming."
Leavitt stated that this data gap "might be permanent" and blamed the Congressional deadlock for delivering a systemic blow to the federal statistical system. She warned that the lack of critical economic data will make government and central bank analysis akin to "navigating blindfolded."
Political Stalemate Delays Budget with Economic Consequences
Currently, differences over the temporary funding bill have not been fully resolved in Congress. Democrats demand inclusion of extensions for Affordable Care Act premium subsidies and reversals of healthcare cuts, while Republicans insist on stripping additional policy content. After several rounds of negotiations, the Senate passed a compromise version, with the House expected to vote later this week.
The government shutdown has lasted over 40 days, broadly impacting livelihoods and economic functioning. Besides halting statistical data, several federal research projects have paused, and public-sector hiring is interrupted. Economists warn that continuing data gaps could undermine investor confidence in the U.S. economy and disrupt fiscal and monetary policy coordination.
Federal Reserve Faces "Flying Blind" Situation with Rising Policy Risks
In the absence of the latest data, the Federal Reserve faces unprecedented uncertainty. The December monetary policy meeting was initially planned to use the October CPI and non-farm payroll reports as core decision-making references to assess rate cuts and inflation risks. However, if the data is permanently unavailable, officials will have to rely on alternative indicators, such as wage statistics from private firms and high-frequency inflation models.
White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett admitted: "Some surveys are simply not completed, and we may never know the true economic conditions of that month." He noted that until the statistical system is restored, "the Federal Reserve and the market are navigating in a fog."
Morgan Stanley analysts indicated that without the support of official data, market divergence on the Fed's policy path will intensify, and interest rate futures volatility could significantly increase.
International Markets Cautious, Data Transparency Questioned
Global financial institutions are exhibiting high vigilance towards the absence of U.S. data. Economists at the European Central Bank point out that any prolonged interruption in U.S. economic indicators will weaken the U.S. dollar's role as a pricing reference on international markets. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also urged the U.S. to "restore statistical transparency as soon as possible" to maintain international market trust.
Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings in an internal assessment report advised clients to monitor "the uncertainty in macroeconomic judgments due to statistical delays," particularly regarding short-term yield movements in the debt market.
Political Standoff Shakes Policy Trust
The "absence" of the October CPI and payroll reports is not only a statistical gap but also reveals the deeper impact of U.S. political stalemates on institutional function.
Data distortion or absence could undermine the scientific basis of policy-making and possibly mislead market signals. The Federal Reserve making decisions without complete data undoubtedly faces the risk of flying blind, while restoring statistical order and political consensus has become the most urgent task at present.
