Market Review
On Thursday, the revised annualized quarter-on-quarter U.S. GDP for Q1 was downgraded to 1.3%, and the pending home sales index for April recorded a -7.7% month-on-month. As this data reignited market confidence in rate cuts, the U.S. dollar index fell from its high, closing at 104.68.
Today's Focus
Dollar Index: The short-term market continues to fluctuate within the range of 104-105.1. Today, U.S. PCE data is due to be released. Focus on whether the data can break through this fluctuating range. Before an effective break, sell high and buy low; after a breakthrough, trend-following is advised.
Euro/USD: After piercing the 1.08 level and pulling back, the short-term market continues its high-level oscillation. The short-term resistance above remains at the previous high of 1.0895; inability to effectively break this level means oscillation continues. Pay attention to market direction following today's U.S. PCE data.
GBP/USD: The overall rhythm is similar to the Euro; short-term, the pound is slightly stronger than the euro. The bullish trend remains unchanged unless 1.2675 is effectively broken. The upper resistance remains at the 1.28 mark. Conservative traders may consider shorting after a potential peak following the PCE release.
USD/JPY: After reaching the resistance area of 157.5-158 yesterday, prices pulled back. Short-term prices broke below the 156.5 low; watch for a second attempt to rise but fail below 158 for a shorting opportunity. Short-term focus on the pullback; consider going long if it finds significant support at a larger scale.
AUD/USD: Prices have tested the 0.664-0.667 resistance area again; if it fails today, shorting remains viable. The larger range remains 0.656-0.672, with caution for a break due to tonight's U.S. PCE data; follow the trend post-break.
USD/CAD: Prices tested the 1.366 support area again yesterday; short-term fluctuations continue. The upper resistance to watch is the 1.373-1.375 area. If prices break above, an upward continuation is expected. Focus on support at the 1.36 level below.
Crude Oil: Unable to break above 80.5, the downtrend continues. Short-term support is at the 76-77 region; avoid chasing shorts if this area holds. Previous short positions can take partial profits; future trades depend on reactions at this support area.
Gold: Prices remain in a short-term oscillation. Upper resistance at the 2370-2380 area remains unchanged; support focus is on 2300. Pay attention to movements after PCE data release; both upward tests and pullbacks provide trading opportunities.
S&P Index: After forming a short-term top, the correction continues. Support is at the 5200 level, while resistance is at the previous breakout structure of 5280. Today's U.S. PCE data will likely test these structures for trading opportunities.
Bitcoin: Price shows a bottoming pattern in the 66000-67600 support area; if it holds, continue with long trades. Upper resistance remains at 70500-72000; focus on trading within this range by selling high and buying low unless prices break this fluctuation range.
