On November 11th, Japan's political landscape was stirred once again as the Ishiba Cabinet announced its collective resignation on that day. To elect a new Prime Minister, the Japanese government urgently convened an interim Cabinet meeting and will soon hold a special session of the National Diet. According to procedure, the newly elected members of the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors will first elect the Speaker and Deputy Speaker for both houses, followed by the Prime Minister designation election. The Prime Minister election is conducted with the House of Representatives voting first, followed by the House of Councillors. A candidate who receives majority support in the first round of voting will be directly elected. If no candidate receives more than half of the support, a second round runoff will be held between the two candidates with the most votes.
Currently, several authoritative media outlets predict that the first round of voting may not produce a winner, with the runoff expected to be between LDP President Shigeru Ishiba and Constitutional Democratic Party leader Yoshihiko Noda. Yoshihiko Noda briefly served as Prime Minister from 2011 to 2012. Compared to Shigeru Ishiba's conservative policies, he adopts a more relaxed stance on fiscal and monetary policies, favoring economic growth stimulation and monetary supply easing.
The market has reacted intensely to these developments, with the yen's depreciation trend accelerating and the USD/JPY exchange rate rising by 0.54% to reach 153.39. Investors generally believe that if Yoshihiko Noda is successfully elected, he may further push down the yen's value while benefiting the Japanese stock market. The Constitutional Democratic Party is currently actively rallying allies for support. If they succeed in securing the Prime Minister position, their dual easing policies are expected to significantly boost the vitality of Japan's economy and capital markets.
Against the backdrop of the showdown for the Prime Minister position between Shigeru Ishiba and Yoshihiko Noda, volatility in Japan's financial markets has intensified. The market generally holds an optimistic view of the possibility of Yoshihiko Noda's appointment, anticipating that his policies will contribute to economic growth. Meanwhile, some experts also warn that the political uncertainty brought about by the early election will continue to affect the market, especially given the fluctuations in the global economic environment, making the coherence and stability of Japan's domestic policies a focal point of attention.
