Last Friday, global crude oil futures prices surged significantly. The U.S. WTI crude futures rose by 3.58% to $76.57 per barrel, Brent crude futures increased by 3.73% to $79.79 per barrel, and the main domestic crude futures contract climbed by 3.13% to 603.7 yuan per barrel. Multiple factors drove this increase in oil prices, including macroeconomic performance, climatic influences, and geopolitical circumstances.
Sanctions Intensify Supply Shortage
According to Xinhua News Agency, on January 10th, the United States announced a new round of sanctions on Russia, targeting 183 transport vessels and a "shadow fleet." These ships are specifically used to bypass sanctions and play a crucial role in exporting Russian oil. Data shows these ships account for about one-third of Russia's shadow fleet, potentially impacting the export of over 1 million barrels of crude oil per day, disrupting global market supply. Meanwhile, Iran's recent oil exports have also declined due to sanctions, with current daily exports dropping to about 1 million barrels, a reduction of 500,000 barrels from earlier levels.
Cold Snap Boosts Demand Growth
The winter cold snap in the Northern Hemisphere has further intensified growth in crude oil demand. The cold weather not only increases the consumption of heating oil but also affects North American oil production and inventories. Data indicates U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have fallen for two consecutive weeks, currently at a five-year low for the same period. Additionally, the partial interruption of European natural gas supplies due to the expiration of transit agreements has heightened concerns over rising natural gas and crude oil prices in the market.
Market Trends and Outlook
Sui Xiaoying, Chief Researcher at Founder Securities Futures, stated that with the continuous cold weather in Europe and America and increased sanctions on Russia and Iran, short-term oil prices might maintain a volatile trend underpinned by supply and demand. However, the upcoming refinery maintenance season in spring may limit further upside potential for oil prices. In the medium to long term, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a global oil supply surplus of 1.18 million barrels per day in Q2 2025 and an average surplus of 950,000 barrels per day for the year. With OPEC+ gradually increasing production and limited demand growth, the probability of a global oil supply surplus is high, and oil prices might face downward pressure on their median level.
Experts suggest that geopolitical developments will continue to be a significant factor affecting oil prices, such as the tensions between Iran and Israel and frequent attacks on shipping by Yemen's Houthi forces, which could maintain a premium on oil prices. In the coming months, the market needs to closely monitor the enforcement strength of sanctions and actual changes in supply and demand in the energy market to assess the direction of crude oil prices.
