On Friday (August 16), during the early Asian trading session, spot gold fluctuated within a narrow range and is currently trading at $2,458.60 per ounce. The gold price saw fluctuations on Thursday, reaching as high as the 2470 mark, but due to strong initial claims data and "fear data," U.S. Treasury yields rose, causing gold prices to dip to around $2,432. Subsequently, buying on dips and safe-haven buying supported the gold price, closing at $2,456.35 per ounce. Today's focus is on the preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for August, the annualized number of building permits for July, and the annualized number of housing starts in the U.S. for July. Attention should also be paid to comments from Federal Reserve officials and geopolitical news. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market believes there is a 100% chance of a rate cut in the U.S. in September. However, strong data has excluded the possibility of a 50-basis-point cut. The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that retail sales grew by 1.0% last month, while June's data was revised down to a 0.2% decline. Additionally, a report by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 10 was 227,000, against an expected 235,000. Following the release of the U.S. data, the dollar rose by 0.4%, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, and Treasury yields spiked, with the two-year yield marking its largest single-day gain in about four months. The ten-year yield also recorded its largest jump in weeks. Meanwhile, two Federal Reserve officials on Thursday voiced support for a rate cut at next month's policy meeting, reversing their previous skepticism about lowering borrowing costs prematurely. On the geopolitical front, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East continue, especially with frequent alerts in the Middle East, further consolidating and lifting the gold market under safe-haven sentiment. For today's fundamentals, focus mainly on the U.S. July housing starts annualized figure and the Americas July building permits total at 20:30, and the U.S. August one-year inflation rate preliminary figure and the U.S. August University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary figure at 22:00. Gold Trend Analysis for 8.16: Yesterday, gold surged and then pulled back, with prices peaking at 2470 and dipping to a low of 2432, closing with a doji candlestick with long upper and lower shadows, which met expectations. Our long and short operations returned considerable profits. From the current chart, the daily chart shows a fierce battle between bulls and bears, revealed by the long upper and lower shadows, indicating significant internal market differences. Under the triplet top resistance above 2480, the bulls have repeatedly attempted to break through but failed each time, increasing the risk of exhaustion and decline. Over time, if the market continues to hover at high levels without an effective breakthrough, the risk of a pullback will increase further. The four-hour time frame punctured the lower line but recovered to form a short-term rebound pattern that has not changed, and the four-hour chart also maintains a bearish top form, with the K-line showing no significant rebound momentum. The resistance above is clearly around 2470. As long as it remains below this resistance, we are looking for a downward move. Given that today is Black Friday, the moving average is also trending downward as expected. The operation strategy is to focus on short positions on rebounds.
Gold's 1-hour moving average is about to form a death cross. Once this death cross forms, the downward momentum for gold will materialize, likely leading to a significant retracement. Last night, gold peaked at 2461, but this rally was short-lived, and it quickly pulled back. Gold faces strong resistance above, so in the early session, with the current price at 2460, it is advisable to short. In summary, today's short-term operation strategy for gold suggests focusing on short positions on rebounds and long positions on retracements. Short-term resistance should focus on the 2460-2463 range, and short-term support should focus on the 2417-2423 range. Gold Trading Strategy Reference for 8.16: - Short gold on rebounds around 2460-2463, with a stop loss of 6 points and target at 2445-2435, or watch for a break toward 2425. - Long gold on retracements around 2423-2425, with a stop loss of 6 points and a target at 2435-2445, or watch for a break toward 2455.
